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11. Spotlight: How has travel by Londoners changed – insights from 10 years of the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) of-demand-for-travel-in-london.pdf). This identified the principal drivers behind changing travel patterns in London and highlighted the need for further investigation so that the relationships could be more fully understood. At the same time wider developments have thrown the spotlight on specific issues that will be of policy concern in the future – for example an increased appreciation of the links between active travel and public health outcomes. There also remain many questions about the various behavioural changes contributing to aggregate outcomes, the reasons for these, and where the trends are most likely to go next. The material in this chapter picks up eight ‘topical transport questions’ and uses the ten years of LTDS data now available, alongside evidence from other sources where appropriate, to provide a brief analytical perspective on each of these questions. The intention is not necessarily to provide definitive or comprehensive ‘answers’; rather it is to highlight what LTDS data can contribute to the debate in each case. Important note The focus in this chapter is on London residents (as opposed to travel by all people in London). In interpreting statistic presented on a per capita basis, it should be recognised that the absolute number of people resident in London has increased substantially in recent years (see also chapters 2 and 12 of this report). 11.3 Have there been any substantial changes in the way that Londoners travel over the last 10 years? Introduction It is sometimes held that developments to technology and factors such as flexible working patterns would reduce the need for people to travel, although in aggregate terms travel does not, from the evidence presented in chapter 2 of this report, appear to be reducing. Total travel demand in London is broadly rising in line with increasing population. A related observation, but one with different implications, is that people on average tend to have ‘fixed’ time and travel budgets, at least at an unconscious and collective level. An implication of this would be that, as average travel speeds increase or decrease, the distance travelled changes correspondingly, or vice versa, thereby influencing factors such as home and workplace location over the long term. What does LTDS tell us about these things? Personal trip rates Figure 11.1 shows the average number of trips per person by London residents over the 10 years of LTDS, sub-divided by gender. It is apparent from the graphic that there is, in fact, a slow but consistent downward tendency in per capita trip rates for London residents, with average falls of 1.0 per cent per year for men, and 0.7 per cent per year for women. The relatively sharp reduction of 2008/09 and the following 2 years is at least partly a reflection of the economic recession, feeding through to lower activity levels and trip rates. Although later years show a recovery, the balance of the trend since the start of the current decade is clearly downwards. On the basis of this evidence, therefore, it would seem that the last decade has seen a tendency for London residents to travel less, on average, per capita. A particularly notable feature of the graphic is the reduction in car based trip rates – reflecting the wider modal shift that has been seen in London. Although there has been a corresponding shift towards 206 Travel in London, Report 8
11. Spotlight: How has travel by Londoners changed – insights from 10 years of the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) greater public transport use, the reduction in car use accounts for the bulk of reduced trip making overall. Figure 11.1 3.0 Trip rates by gender and main mode of transport (average day, seven day week). 2.5 Trips per person per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Male Female National Rail Underground/ DLR Bus/tram Taxi/ Other Car driver Car passenger Motorcycle Cycle Walk Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Non-travel LTDS also includes details of those who make no trips during the course of the survey day. This is so that the sample can be representative of all Londoners. These ‘non travellers’ comprise a relatively high proportion of Londoners – just short of 20 per cent on any given day. The values in figure 11.1 are averages across all people, and so it is of interest to examine rates of non-travel to understand if these have been a significant contributor to the observed overall trend. Figure 11.2 shows rates of non-travel by London residents according to their working status. Unsurprisingly those who are retired, for example, are less likely to travel on a given day than those in employment, although even these latter people have a non-travel rate in excess of 10 per cent. However, the key observation from the graph is that rates on non-travel have shown a slow but steady increase over the review period. Overall rates of non-travel have increased, by almost 20 per cent since 2005/06. This raises a related question – what has happened to average trip rates among those who do travel, ie if those who make no trips on the survey day are excluded? Figure 11.3 shows that they show a similar slow downward trend to overall trip rates. It can therefore be concluded that an increase in non-travel is only one of several factors contributing to the overall trend. Travel in London, Report 8 207
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