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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth
births running at roughly twice the rate of deaths, among the resident population,
since 2002. Over this period the trends have intensified, with an increase of nearly
30 per cent in the rate of births, and a decrease of 25 per cent in the rate of deaths.
The net effect was that natural change increased from around 50,000 to around
80,000 residents per year over the period 2002-2013.
Projecting forwards, the number of births in London is expected to stabilise at
around 130,000 per year with a moderate increase in the 2030s. The number of
deaths is also expected to stabilise, at around 50,000 per year, with a slowly
increasing trend reflecting an increasingly ageing population. These trends would
still give rise to a natural change increase of around 80,000 per year – which will
remain the primary driver of population increase in London.
Figure 12.3 Natural population change in London – 2002 to 2041.
160,000
140,000
Births Deaths Natural change
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Source: GLA.
0
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041
Net international migration has played a major role in the increase of London’s
population over the past decade, and has typically been between 75,000 and
100,000 per year. However, this has been partly balanced by Londoners moving to
other parts of the country – typically a loss of about 50,000 per year. This means
that the net population change from migration overall has been more modest than
that from natural change – in recent years an increase of about 50,000 people per
year.
Over recent years, the combined effect of established strong growth from natural
change of about 80,000 per year, a net annual increase in international migration of
75,000-100,000 and a lower annual loss from domestic migration of about 50,000,
has led to a strong net annual increase in London’s population of more than
100,000.
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