Travel in London Travel in London

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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Figure 12.18 Projected trip growth to 2031 (‘low car’ scenario). 35 30 Total trips average day (millions) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Car PT Walk Cycle Total Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Figure 12.19 Projected trip growth to 2031 (‘high car’ scenario). 35 30 Total trips average day (millions) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Car PT Walk Cycle Total Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. 270 Travel in London, Report 8
12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Figure 12.20 compares the ‘low car’ and ‘high car’ scenarios, showing the overall increase in trips and the share of the growth between the main modes of travel. In both the low and high car scenarios the total volume of trips is expected to increase from 25 million in 2011 to 32 million in 2041. Again, in both scenarios the share of total travel by cycle and public transport increases, and the share of travel by car reduces. Car mode share falls from 38 per cent in 2011 to between 31 and 34 per cent in 2041, and public transport mode share increases from 35 per cent in 2011 to between 36 and 38 per cent in 2041. Figure 12.20 Projected trip growth to 2041 (‘low’ and ‘high car’ scenarios compared). Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Some key characteristics of the growth scenarios The projected fall in car mode share is consistent with the notion of ‘peak car’ (see also section 11.4 of this report). Car trips in outer London, which on average are longer than those in inner London, are estimated to make up a greater proportion of car travel in 2041. Combined with improvements in fuel efficiency and the resulting fall in the relative cost of driving, this may lead to a moderate increase in average car trip length in London overall. The growth in car and vehicle traffic varies between central, inner and outer London. In central London car traffic is expected to decline, alongside large improvements in the capacity and connectivity of the public transport system and growth in cycling, whereas continued growth in population is expected to lead to some growth in car kilometres in inner and outer London. Light goods vehicles are expected to grow in response to London’s rising population and jobs and, with only moderate growth in car traffic and no overall growth in heavy goods vehicles, will make up a larger share of overall traffic volumes, especially in central London. Travel in London, Report 8 271
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Spotlight topics 203 Travel in Lond
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