Travel in London Travel in London

11. Spotlight: How has travel by Londoners changed – insights from 10 years of the London Travel
Demand Survey (LTDS)
Population change in London
In 2015, London’s population topped 8.6 million, equalling the previous peak in
1939. Population growth is expected to continue, reaching 10.4 million people in
2041, with a particular increase in the number of older people (those aged 65 plus).
This age group is expected to increase by 68 per cent between 2014 and 2041.
Trip rates
Figure 11.20 shows the number of trips made per person per day by age group
between 2005/06 and 2014/15. The number of trips made per person per day varies
by age group and has also varied over the ten year time period. Trip rates for all age
groups were highest between 2005/06 and 2007/08, after which they decreased as
a result of the economic recession in 2008. Since 2008, trip rates have slowly
increased, although have not fully recovered to 2006/07 levels.
Generally, 25-64-year-olds make the highest number of trips per person, at around
2.7 trips per day, although this has decreased slightly to 2.5 trips per day in
2014/15. Younger and older residents make fewer trips on average, at slightly more
than two trips per person per day.
All other things being equal, therefore, an increase in the proportion of older people
from 11 to 16 per cent of the population between 2014 and 2041 might lead to an
18 per cent reduction in total travel demand in terms of trips per capita, against that
which would be expected if the age profile and total population remained
unchanged.
Figure 11.20 Trip rates by age group, whole-week sample, 2005/06–2014/15.
3.0
2.5
2.0
Trips per person per day
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis.
25-64 years Younger people (5-24 years) Older people (65+ years)
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