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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth
further economic decline and fall in jobs in 2008 and 2009. Since then, job growth
has been exceptionally strong. Between 2011 and 2014 the number of jobs in
London grew by 640,000, an annual average of 4.2 per cent or more than 200,000
jobs per year. This recent strong growth compares with an average growth rate of
0.7 per cent or 29,000 jobs per year between 1984 and 2011.
The large increase in the number of jobs has been accompanied by a significant
change in the structure of London’s economy since the 1980s. The number of
manufacturing jobs halved between the mid-1980s and mid mid-1990s, and then
halved again by 2011. In contrast, the professional, real estate, scientific and
technical services sector grew over this period, with jobs in this sector doubling
between the 1980s and 2011. Since 2011 growth in this sector has been higher than
other major sectors and much higher than the longer-term trend, growing by annual
average rate of 7.3 per cent compared with an annual average of 3.0 per cent
between 1984 and 2011.
Figure 12.14 Projected growth in employment in London, 2011-2041.
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Employment population (millions)
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1
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London Plan 2015 employment projection Interim updated employment projection, June 2015
Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis.
Spatial patterns of future employment growth
Projecting forward to 2041 (figure 12.15), the largest growth in employment will be
in central and inner London. Narrowing the focus to 2031, London’s Opportunity
and Growth areas are expected to play a key role in supporting London’s growth,
with potential capacity to support nearly 600,000 jobs. In the east the Opportunity
areas in the Isle of Dogs, Lower Lea Valley and the Royal Docks have total capacity
for 200,000 jobs (figure 12.16).
266 Travel in London, Report 8