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9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health from all sources, and the reductions to be achieved from transport would not necessarily be exactly proportionate to the overall 60 per cent reduction, mainly because the cost-effectiveness of reduction initiatives varies between different economic sectors. The CCMES analysis broke down the contributions to the 60 per cent target by sector as follows (these are reductions by 2025 from 1990 levels): • Industrial and Commercial 71 per cent reduction (14.07 MtCO 2 ) • Domestic 53 per cent (8.45 MtCO 2 ) • Transport 48 per cent (4.52 MtCO 2 ) CO 2 emissions from transport in 2013 Interim figures from the London Energy and Greenhouse Gas Inventory (LEGGI) showed that emissions from transport were 8.67 MtCO 2 in 2013, and accounted for 22 per cent of London’s CO 2 emissions. This is a low proportion when compared to the national average of 27 percent in 2012. Note that these estimates will be updated on the basis of the new London emissions inventories, as described in the following sections. Nevertheless, they do provide a basis for better understanding the challenge that the Mayor’s CO 2 reduction target presents in the context of a rapidly growing city. TfL’s Health, Safety and Environment Report 2013-14 sets out medium-term trends for CO 2 emissions from the main public transport modes in London. Carbon dioxide reduction targets are framed in terms of absolute tonnages of emissions, however, London’s rapidly growing population, and the need to provide enhanced public transport to accommodate this and provide for future economic growth, mean that steps to reduce CO 2 emissions are more appropriately assessed on a normalised (per passenger kilometre) basis. TfL’s target is to reduce normalised CO 2 emissions from the main public transport modes, as measured in grams CO 2 e (carbon dioxide equivalent) per passenger kilometre, by 20 per cent in 2017/18 as measured against a 2005/06 baseline. Figure 9.3 shows progress towards this target to be broadly on track. However, the equivalent pace of reduction in absolute tonnages falls short of the wider Mayor’s reduction target. 168 Travel in London, Report 8
9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health Figure 9.3 Normalised emissions of CO 2 by mode of public transport. 120 100 grams CO 2 per passenger kilometre 80 60 40 20 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Bus Operations Docklands Light Railway London Overground London Tramlink London Underground Total TfL CO2 emissions per passenger km Source: TfL Health, Safety and Environment (Rail and Underground). CO 2 emissions – understanding the scale of the challenge Figure 9.4 shows an assessment of progress towards the Mayor’s reduction targets from ground-based transport in London. It is based on the version of the London inventories current in 2010, and is therefore due to be updated once the new inventories are fully available. Based on a business-as-usual scenario, including only funded schemes as at mid- 2015, the figure suggests that there will be a 3.45 million tonne ‘excess’ of transport CO 2 emissions in 2025, compared against the nominal transport contribution (48 per cent) to the 60 per cent reduction against 1990 levels. To put this into perspective, 3.45 million tonnes of CO 2 per year would be equivalent to 45 per cent of London’s total road vehicle kilometres in 2025. The essential reason for this is that measures previously assumed when framing targets are not delivering the reductions that were expected and not all measures were identified in CCMES. One area in particular where progress has been slower is the electrification of the road vehicle fleet. The Climate Change Act established a target for the UK to reduce its emissions by at least 80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050. To ensure that regular progress is made towards this long-term target, the Act also established a system of fiveyearly carbon budgets, to serve as stepping stones on the way. The 2 nd UK Carbon budget (2013-17) is 2,782 MtCO 2 e, which is a 29 per cent reduction on 1990 levels. To put this in perspective, London’s emissions reduced by 10.8 per cent in 2013 (non-weather corrected), compared to 1990 levels, although on a per capita basis, the reduction is 27.9 per cent. 169 Travel in London, Report 8
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