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4. Performance of the transport networks allow a more meaningful quantification of the impact of traffic congestion and unreliability on the economic vitality of London, as well as for the fuller range of road users. Summary of long-term trends for traffic speeds and delays in London Previous Travel in London reports have described the trends over two decades towards slower average traffic speeds and increased congestion (delay) in London. They also described the relationship of these trends to levels of traffic demand, which had been falling for much of the last decade, and interventions, such as urban realm improvements, that have reduced the effective capacity of London’s road network for general motorised traffic. The consistency of this relationship, visible in the historic data from moving car observer surveys up to 2006/07, has more recently been obscured as newer Trafficmaster GPS data (which replaced the traditional method of recording speeds and delays) has shown a notable lack of trend at the aggregate level since first becoming available in late 2006. This was in spite, or perhaps because of, continued reductions in traffic volumes, and a continuing wide range of interventions by TfL and delivery partners intended to improve the operation and management of the road network. Possible reasons for the remarkably stable trend over recent years were reviewed in Travel in London report 6. Over the most recent two years, however, there are clear indications that the longstanding trends are changing, with evidence of both increasing volumes of motor vehicle traffic on London’s roads (see section 3.10 of this report) and a sharp deterioration in average traffic speeds and delays, this also coinciding in the most recent year with a substantial increase in road and street works on the network, reflecting an increase in large-scale construction activity as London emerges from the recession, as well as the Roads Modernisation Programme, including new infrastructure to support the Mayor’s Cycling Vision. Average traffic speeds Figure 4.5 shows the trend in average traffic speeds by functional sector of London since late 2006, when Trafficmaster data first became available. Values are summarised in table 4.8. There are clear and expected patterns associated with seasonality and the fluctuations in traffic demand on the network over the course of each year. There are also clear and expected differences in the prevailing average speeds for each of central, inner and outer London, reflecting the density and characteristics of the different networks. The overall trend was remarkably stable between 2007 and 2012; however since this time the trend for average vehicle speed in all parts of London has been sharply downwards. Table 4.8 summarises the values in terms of annual averages. Table 4.9 shows a comparison of data over equivalent periods between 2008-09 and 2014-15 (18 months in each case). Average traffic speeds have declined in all sectors and time periods between 2014 and the first half of 2015. The largest declines in average traffic speed were all in the central area, by 9 per cent in the interpeak, and 7 per cent in the AM peak and PM peak respectively. The average decline in traffic speed in inner London was 4 per cent over the time periods and 3 per cent in outer 86 Travel in London, Report 8
4. Performance of the transport networks London. Greater declines in average traffic speeds in the central area are likely to be attributable to greater temporary disruption to the road network in central London. Looking at the 18-month comparison between 2008/09 and 2014/15 (table 4.9), average traffic speeds have declined the most in the PM peak, by 9 per cent in the central area and 8 per cent in the inner and outer areas respectively. Figure 4.5 45 Average traffic speeds (kilometres an hour) by functional sector of London. Working weekdays by time period. TfL’s ‘network of interest’. Average traffic speeds (kilometres per hour) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Central AM peak Central inter-peak Central PM peak Inner AM peak Inner inter-peak Inner PM peak Outer AM peak Outer inter-peak Outer PM peak Source: TfL Surface Transport, Outcomes Delivery. 87 Travel in London, Report 8
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