Travel in London Travel in London

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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Figure 12.11 Population change in London, 2011-2041. Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Figure 12.12 Projected population change to 2031 – biggest changes in London’s Opportunity and Growth Areas. Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. 264 Travel in London, Report 8
12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Narrowing the horizon to growth to 2031, there is more certainty over the expected spatial distribution, which has a major focus on London’s Opportunity and Growth Areas (figure 12.12). If the Opportunity Areas and Areas of Intensification meet the indicative or minimum levels set out in the London Plan, then these have capacity to accommodate about 750,000 residents and nearly 600,000 jobs. However, growth in these highly-connected areas may well be focused on younger people of working age. Older people will not only make up more of the population in the rest of London, but their growth will tend to be more focused in outer London (figure 12.13), locations that tend to have less public transport connectivity and, at least in historic terms, a greater dependence on the car for travel. Figure 12.13 Proportion of older residents in 2031. Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. 12.3 Changing employment in London Current and future employment Along with increasing and changing population, changes to the number and type of jobs in London are important factors to be taken into account in developing forecasts of future travel demand. It is estimated that there were 4.9 million jobs in London in 2011, with 3.0 million jobs located in central and inner London, and 1.9 million in outer London. Furthermore, there were 6.7 million workplaces in the East and South East Government Regions surrounding London. Between 1992 and 2014 the number of jobs in London grew by over 1.6 million, and is currently estimated as 5.5 million. This has included several distinct growth periods, punctuated by economic slowdowns. Following the recession of the early 1990s, the number of jobs in London grew by 750,000 between 1992 and 2001. There was another slowdown in 2002, followed by a period of growth, until a Travel in London, Report 8 265
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Spotlight topics 203 Travel in Lond
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