12.01.2015 Views

Download - Academy Publisher

Download - Academy Publisher

Download - Academy Publisher

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

ISBN 978-952-5726-09-1 (Print)<br />

Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Networking and Network Security (ISNNS ’10)<br />

Jinggangshan, P. R. China, 2-4, April. 2010, pp. 101-104<br />

Prediction of Reservoir-induced Earthquake<br />

Based on Fuzzy Theory<br />

Ming Zhong, and Qiuwen Zhang<br />

College of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology<br />

Wuhan, Hubei, China<br />

zhongming_youye@sina.com; qwzhang_hust@163.com<br />

Abstract—With more and more reservoirs have been and<br />

are being built all over the world, reservoir-induced<br />

earthquake has received a great deal of attention from<br />

geoscientists mainly because of its potential to damage<br />

constructions and to cause human losses. Based on the<br />

previous researches on the environmental conditions of<br />

reservoir-induced earthquake, a criteria hierarchy model<br />

has been constructed. We give the environmental condition<br />

an uncertain description by applying weight in this theory,<br />

which shows that the different factor plays different role in<br />

risk assessment. Taking one candidate assessment unit into<br />

consideration, the risk class through fuzzy theory is<br />

obtained. Based on the original mechanism, a fuzzy<br />

mathematical prediction model of three-gorge reservoir in<br />

China has been created. It is concluded that compared with<br />

other mathematical prediction models, the reservoirinduced<br />

earthquake prediction model based on the fuzzy<br />

theory can analyze data with fuzzy processing and therefore<br />

possesses advantages of high prediction accuracy.<br />

Index Terms—reservoir-induced earthquake, fuzzy theory,<br />

risk prediction, uncertain analysis, three-gorge reservoir<br />

I. INTRODUCTION<br />

Reservoir-induced earthquake is a special engineering<br />

geological problem resulting from development of<br />

hydraulic resources, which occurred in reservoir and its<br />

peripheral.<br />

Previous researches emphasis on differential features<br />

analysis, origin mechanism and formation condition<br />

among several earthquake examples. Prof. Gupta [1], a<br />

world-famous expert in reservoir-induced earthquake,<br />

investigated the formation condition and mechanism of<br />

reservoir-induced earthquake by analyzing the seismicity<br />

examples of Koyna Reservoir in India, Nuek Reservoir in<br />

Tajikistan, Lake Mead in America and Xinfengjiang<br />

Reservoir in china in his classic study “Dam and<br />

Earthquake”; Denlinger [2] studied geological<br />

environmental conditions relating to Reservoir-induced<br />

earthquake in Geysers reservoir in northern California of<br />

the United states; Simpson [3] classified Reservoirinduced<br />

earthquake into two major categories: water<br />

permeation and additional strain; Keith [4] analyzed the<br />

relationship between reservoir-induced earthquake and<br />

crustal deformation in Nuek Reservoir in Tajikistan;<br />

Chadha [5] investigated the relationship between<br />

reservoir-induced earthquake and water lever change.<br />

Edelman [6] presented a rigorously derived analytical<br />

Corresponding author: Qiuwen Zhang (qwzhang_hust@163.com)<br />

method to describe and interpret the low magnitude<br />

earthquakes caused by injection of the borehole fluids<br />

into surrounding porous reservoirs.<br />

With the accumulation of observation data of<br />

reservoir-induced earthquake, base on the preview paper,<br />

works in this area have been pursued by different<br />

investigators to relate different geological features with<br />

the occurrence of the reservoir-induced earthquake or to<br />

predict the magnitude of water-induced earthquakes.<br />

Many prediction theories with different characteristics are<br />

proposed, such as Geology and environmental method,<br />

Bayesian probability method, Gray clustering method,<br />

Patten recognition method and Logic of information<br />

method. Habibagahi [7] assessed the risk of reservoirinduced<br />

earthquake by RBF neural network; Fahjan [8]<br />

forecasted the risk of reservoir-induced earthquake by the<br />

change of water;Ping Li [9] analyzed the capacity of<br />

seismogenesis at active faults in the Three-gorge<br />

Reservoir of The Yangtze river; Qifa Xia [10] assessed<br />

seismic hazard according to engineering geology and<br />

earthquake geology; Qinyun Wang [11] used Probability<br />

Analytic Method and geological Environment Method to<br />

assess seismic hazard of The Three-gorge Reservoir;<br />

Houqun Chen [12] established the database of reservoirinduced<br />

earthquake and predicted the seismic risk by<br />

using GIS technology; According to the record of the<br />

LiJiaXia water-induced seismicity in 1998-2002, Xin Sun<br />

[13] analyzed seismicity feature after the reservoir<br />

impoundment and then predicted seismic hazard in the<br />

future; Zongji Ma [14] proposed a reservoir-induced<br />

earthquake prediction and evaluation Model based on<br />

Digital Watershed; Qiuwen Zhang [15] proposed a model<br />

to quantitatively predict and assess the risk of reservoirinduced<br />

earthquake, the results are descried with risk<br />

probability of reservoir-induced earthquake. More<br />

recently the theory of fuzzy sets has been used to evaluate<br />

the risk of reservoir-induced earthquake. So far, the cause<br />

and mechanism of the reservoir-induced earthquake is a<br />

matter of speculation and requires further research.<br />

A quantitative and qualitative prediction theory has<br />

been presented in this research, which evaluate the risk of<br />

reservoir-induced earthquake based on the analytic<br />

hierarchy process (AHP) model, and then apply this fuzzy<br />

comprehensive evaluation theory in every divided<br />

prediction unit.<br />

This paper is organized as follows: In section 2, the<br />

evaluation criteria hierarchy is constructed; it is the result<br />

© 2010 ACADEMY PUBLISHER<br />

AP-PROC-CS-10CN006<br />

101

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!