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ISBN 978-952-5726-09-1 (Print)<br />
Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Networking and Network Security (ISNNS ’10)<br />
Jinggangshan, P. R. China, 2-4, April. 2010, pp. 101-104<br />
Prediction of Reservoir-induced Earthquake<br />
Based on Fuzzy Theory<br />
Ming Zhong, and Qiuwen Zhang<br />
College of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology<br />
Wuhan, Hubei, China<br />
zhongming_youye@sina.com; qwzhang_hust@163.com<br />
Abstract—With more and more reservoirs have been and<br />
are being built all over the world, reservoir-induced<br />
earthquake has received a great deal of attention from<br />
geoscientists mainly because of its potential to damage<br />
constructions and to cause human losses. Based on the<br />
previous researches on the environmental conditions of<br />
reservoir-induced earthquake, a criteria hierarchy model<br />
has been constructed. We give the environmental condition<br />
an uncertain description by applying weight in this theory,<br />
which shows that the different factor plays different role in<br />
risk assessment. Taking one candidate assessment unit into<br />
consideration, the risk class through fuzzy theory is<br />
obtained. Based on the original mechanism, a fuzzy<br />
mathematical prediction model of three-gorge reservoir in<br />
China has been created. It is concluded that compared with<br />
other mathematical prediction models, the reservoirinduced<br />
earthquake prediction model based on the fuzzy<br />
theory can analyze data with fuzzy processing and therefore<br />
possesses advantages of high prediction accuracy.<br />
Index Terms—reservoir-induced earthquake, fuzzy theory,<br />
risk prediction, uncertain analysis, three-gorge reservoir<br />
I. INTRODUCTION<br />
Reservoir-induced earthquake is a special engineering<br />
geological problem resulting from development of<br />
hydraulic resources, which occurred in reservoir and its<br />
peripheral.<br />
Previous researches emphasis on differential features<br />
analysis, origin mechanism and formation condition<br />
among several earthquake examples. Prof. Gupta [1], a<br />
world-famous expert in reservoir-induced earthquake,<br />
investigated the formation condition and mechanism of<br />
reservoir-induced earthquake by analyzing the seismicity<br />
examples of Koyna Reservoir in India, Nuek Reservoir in<br />
Tajikistan, Lake Mead in America and Xinfengjiang<br />
Reservoir in china in his classic study “Dam and<br />
Earthquake”; Denlinger [2] studied geological<br />
environmental conditions relating to Reservoir-induced<br />
earthquake in Geysers reservoir in northern California of<br />
the United states; Simpson [3] classified Reservoirinduced<br />
earthquake into two major categories: water<br />
permeation and additional strain; Keith [4] analyzed the<br />
relationship between reservoir-induced earthquake and<br />
crustal deformation in Nuek Reservoir in Tajikistan;<br />
Chadha [5] investigated the relationship between<br />
reservoir-induced earthquake and water lever change.<br />
Edelman [6] presented a rigorously derived analytical<br />
Corresponding author: Qiuwen Zhang (qwzhang_hust@163.com)<br />
method to describe and interpret the low magnitude<br />
earthquakes caused by injection of the borehole fluids<br />
into surrounding porous reservoirs.<br />
With the accumulation of observation data of<br />
reservoir-induced earthquake, base on the preview paper,<br />
works in this area have been pursued by different<br />
investigators to relate different geological features with<br />
the occurrence of the reservoir-induced earthquake or to<br />
predict the magnitude of water-induced earthquakes.<br />
Many prediction theories with different characteristics are<br />
proposed, such as Geology and environmental method,<br />
Bayesian probability method, Gray clustering method,<br />
Patten recognition method and Logic of information<br />
method. Habibagahi [7] assessed the risk of reservoirinduced<br />
earthquake by RBF neural network; Fahjan [8]<br />
forecasted the risk of reservoir-induced earthquake by the<br />
change of water;Ping Li [9] analyzed the capacity of<br />
seismogenesis at active faults in the Three-gorge<br />
Reservoir of The Yangtze river; Qifa Xia [10] assessed<br />
seismic hazard according to engineering geology and<br />
earthquake geology; Qinyun Wang [11] used Probability<br />
Analytic Method and geological Environment Method to<br />
assess seismic hazard of The Three-gorge Reservoir;<br />
Houqun Chen [12] established the database of reservoirinduced<br />
earthquake and predicted the seismic risk by<br />
using GIS technology; According to the record of the<br />
LiJiaXia water-induced seismicity in 1998-2002, Xin Sun<br />
[13] analyzed seismicity feature after the reservoir<br />
impoundment and then predicted seismic hazard in the<br />
future; Zongji Ma [14] proposed a reservoir-induced<br />
earthquake prediction and evaluation Model based on<br />
Digital Watershed; Qiuwen Zhang [15] proposed a model<br />
to quantitatively predict and assess the risk of reservoirinduced<br />
earthquake, the results are descried with risk<br />
probability of reservoir-induced earthquake. More<br />
recently the theory of fuzzy sets has been used to evaluate<br />
the risk of reservoir-induced earthquake. So far, the cause<br />
and mechanism of the reservoir-induced earthquake is a<br />
matter of speculation and requires further research.<br />
A quantitative and qualitative prediction theory has<br />
been presented in this research, which evaluate the risk of<br />
reservoir-induced earthquake based on the analytic<br />
hierarchy process (AHP) model, and then apply this fuzzy<br />
comprehensive evaluation theory in every divided<br />
prediction unit.<br />
This paper is organized as follows: In section 2, the<br />
evaluation criteria hierarchy is constructed; it is the result<br />
© 2010 ACADEMY PUBLISHER<br />
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