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"normalization", whose membership belongs to c4 being
0.7. Consequently, single index measure vector of well
profile is (0 0 0.3 0.7 0),and gain multi-index
measure matrix of engineering factors by similarly
algorithm:
⎡ 0 0.7 0.3 0 0⎤
⎢
0 0 1 0 0
⎥
⎢
⎥
⎢ 0 0.8 0.2 0 0 ⎥
⎢
⎥
0 0 0.3 0.7 0
( μ
ik ) 5 × 8
= ⎢
⎥
⎢ 0 0.4 0.6 0 0 ⎥
⎢
⎥
⎢ 1 0 0 0 0 ⎥
⎢0.3 0.7 0 0 0 ⎥
⎢
⎥
⎢⎣
0 1 0 0 0 ⎥⎦
The weight vector of eight indicators by calculating is
w
x2
= (0.08, 0.15, 0.15, 0.2,0.12, 0.11,0.1,0.09), and
there is comprehensive evaluation vector of engineering
factors: μ = μ
2 x
× w =(0.14, 0.384, 0.336, 0.14, 0). C
2 x 2
Similarly, index weight vector and comprehensive
evaluation vector of geological factor can be calculated,
and there is :
⎡ 0 0.72 0.28 0 0 ⎤
μ1 = w x 1× μ x 1
= (0.5,0.5) × ⎢
0.8 0.2 0 0 0
⎥
⎣
⎦
=(0.4,0.46,0.14,0,0)
In target layer, the weight vector of geological factor
and engineering factor is w= ( 0.3, 0.7 ) , and
comprehensive evaluation vector of target layer is:
⎡ 0.4 0.46 0.14 0 0⎤
μx
= w× μ = (0.3,0.7) × ⎢
0.14 0.384 0.336 0.14 0 ⎥
⎣
⎦
=(0.218, 0.4068, 0.2772, 0.098, 0)
Taking confidence λ = 0.6 , identify evaluation levels
and there is 0.218+0.4068.>0.6, so that we can determine
risk rating of this drilling project is c
2
, i.e. lower risk.
Ⅴ. CONCLUSION
There is a variety of risks in drilling project, not only
needing to analyze each factor, but also needing
comprehensive evaluation on the basis of various factors.
Risk comprehensive evaluation based on unascertained
measure method is feasible, which not only refer to the
subjective experience of experts, but realize the
quantitative evaluation according to mathematical models,
and evaluation results can provide decision support for
drilling projects. Taking various risk factors into account
before decision-making of drilling program, and
modifying the program constantly according to the actual
situation, we can controll the possibility of risk at
minimum level. The example show that this method is
scientific, rational, efficient and applicable with wide
application prospect[7].
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Funding project for Academic Human Resources
Development in Institutions of Higher Learning under the
Juristiction of Beijing Municipality. PHR(IHLB)).
Logistics and Supply Chain Management Research.
PHR 200907134.
REFERENCES
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Drilling Risk Factors and Model Building [J]. Processing,
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122 .
[2] DONG Guoyong. HSE Risk Management of Drilling
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[3] ZHAO Junping. Risk Analysis and Management Research
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Petroleum Institute,2007.
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[5] THOMASL,SAATY.Making and Validating Complex
Decisions with the AHP/ANP[J] Journal of Systems
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[6] KANG Jian, HOU Yunbing, SUN Guangyi. Stability
Analysis of the Coal Seam Roof Based on Unascertained
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Technology,2007,17(2)157-159.
[7] GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing. Risk Evaluation of Gob
Area Based on the theory of unascertained measure [J] .
Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008(2):
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