Proceedings

Attempts by economists to describe the relationship between the economy and the
natural environment in terms of costs have resulted in a number of modeling theories
(Azar and Schneider, 2002; Nordhaus, 2007; Faber and Frenken, 2008). These
theories currently allow a quantitative assessment, covering the stability interval of
the relationship, but are unable to characterize its internal structure. The global
warming phenomenon, caused not only by industrial and domestic pollution, but also
by the discretionary intervention of economic society on the balance of biodiversity,
has intensified and diversified the relationship between the economic and natural
environment, emphasizing externalities of an exhaustive nature.
A considerable amount of economic literature has approached the issue of climate
changes, their causes and potential impact, and also the costs to mitigate the process
(Edmonds and Reilly, 1983; Nordhaus, 1991; Pearce, 1991; Cline, 1992;
Schmalensee, 1993; Weyant, 1994). From the perspective of economic analysis,
recognizing the irreversible nature of pollution caused by economic activities induces
the hypothesis that the natural environment has the capacity to absorb pollutants at a
constant rate (Keeler et al., 1972; Gradus and Smulders 1993). Other researchers
(Forster, 1975; Dasgupta 1982) have formalized the assimilation function of nature,
correlating the level of pollution and the absorption capacity of the environment: the
more intense the pollution, the lesser the level of environmental assimilation. These
works are deterministic in nature. Attempts to optimize the balance between the wellknown
business interests and the not yet fully configured or understood environmental
interests, have created compromise models hoped to generate valid solutions.
Reductionist approaches specific to the twentieth century have permitted the
accumulation of a massive amount of information, multifaceted and in all areas. This
information must be integrated through the vision of complexity sciences into
aggregated models, holistic, dynamic and on multiple layers of complexity to
understand the nature of complex crises generated by climate change.
At the end of the twentieth century, policies to reduce the destructive effects on the
environment were shaped to reflect sustainable development and economic growth;
the optimal emissions policy leads to uncertainty about the occurrence of
environmental events, which may lead to a continuous decline in wealth. The resource
of “air purity” is renewable due to the natural process of eliminating carbon dioxide
and other gases form the atmosphere through, for example, photosynthesis or the
dissolution of pollutants into the ocean, in conditions we hope to be stable, but have
an unclear dynamic because of the disappearance of species. Similar processes have
been considered by Clarke and Reed (1994).
The description and recognition of these change processes allows managers to decide
at any time if it is desirable to keep emissions below the natural rate of purification.
Additionally, it is important to see if it is possible to maintain the probability of
occurrence or restriction of emissions at or below the purification rate, avoiding the
risk for the occurrence of severe environmental events. These decisions are currently
ignoring the issue of alleged stability of the natural environment and primarily
consider the economic factor in terms of profitability. The possibility to avoid risks,
originating in the nature of environmental events considered here is unique for our
research and has important consequences. On the other hand, the policy of pollution
allowances does not solve the problem of nature’s ability to intervene, but gives way
to risks for unpredictable biological and ecosystem catastrophes.
~ 1009 ~