World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Commercial vehicles
The projections of the number of commercial vehicles in the Reference Case are
shown in Table 2.3. Over 480 million commercial vehicles are expected to be on the
roads by 2035. This reflects an average increase of 3.8% p.a. from 2009, higher than
the expected annual average rate of global economic growth. Developing Asia is the
key source of the increase, accounting for 58% globally (Figure 2.9). By 2030, India
has as many trucks as China and, by 2035 it will have more than any of the three
highlighted OECD regions (Table 2.3).
Table 2.3
Commercial vehicles in the Reference Case millions
Lorry growth
% p.a.
2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009–2035
OECD America 33 34 37 40 43 46 50 1.6
OECD Europe 38 39 42 47 53 60 67 2.2
OECD Asia Oceania 25 28 29 31 32 34 35 1.2
OECD 96 101 108 118 129 140 151 1.7
Latin America 15 19 22 26 30 34 39 3.7
Middle East & Africa 10 10 14 17 22 27 34 4.9
India 8 10 15 23 34 50 72 9.1
China 16 17 23 31 40 50 62 5.3
Other Asia 20 23 31 41 52 65 82 5.6
OPEC 10 12 14 17 20 24 28 3.8
Developing countries 79 90 119 155 198 251 316 5.5
Russia 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 0.8
Other Eurasia 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 2.5
Eurasia 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 1.6
World 184 201 237 284 339 403 481 3.8
Oil use per vehicle
Key to oil demand patterns in the road transportation sector, in addition to the actual
projected quantities of vehicles in the future, is the amount of oil that is used on
average across the fleet of cars and commercial vehicles. This, in turn, is determined