World Oil Outlook - Opec

94
300
200
2,000
Developing countries
typically < 200
100
1,000
4.2 billion people live in
The measure may lead to the introduction of countries more with efficient < 1 car per aircraft, 40 people but with
the slow turnover 0 of capital stock this initial effect will be minimal: it has 0 been
estimated that by 2020 only 1% of aviation-kilometres flown will come from new
planes. 17
Figure 2.9 NEW
Tables 2.7 and 2.8 show the Reference Case levels and growth rates for oil de-
millions
mand in this sector for the Reference Case. Over the period 2009–2035 average global
growth of 1% p.a. sees demand increase by close to 2 mboe/d. The fastest growth rates
are in China and India, both around 3% p.a., but China registers the highest absolute
Other developing
growth, as 200 it starts from a higher base. Indeed, developing Asia countries accounts for 48% of
the global increase (Figure 2.11).
to oil demand 100 comes from trains and domestic waterways navigation. This sector
Asian developing
countries
Figure 2.12
Oil use in rail and domestic navigation, Figure 1970–2035 2.12
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
150
Rail and domestic navigation
When looking at the overall demand picture, a relatively insignificant contribution
accounted for less than 2 mboe/d in 2009, with three-quarters of the oil use in the
OECD or China. Demand Eurasia in this sector in OECD countries has been steadily fall-
50
ing, and this is set to continue, while use in developing countries has been rising,
0
mboe/d
OECD
Developing countries
OECD
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Midd
OEC