World Oil Outlook - Opec

Table 4.3
Oil demand in the HEG scenario mb/d
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OECD 46.2 46.4 46.1 45.5 44.8
Developing countries 41.2 47.6 53.7 59.6 65.7
Transition economies 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0
World 92.5 99.4 105.4 110.9 116.4
Difference from Reference Case
OECD 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.7
Developing countries 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.1
Transition economies 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
World 0.7 2.5 4.5 6.7 9.1
Table 4.2
OPEC crude oil supply in the HEG scenario mb/d
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OPEC crude 30.3 33.3 36.9 40.4 43.7
Difference from Reference Case
OPEC crude 0.7 2.5 4.4 6.5 8.8
Case, particularly as their financial constraints do not mirror those of most OECD
countries.
An alternative set of economic growth rates have, therefore, been developed
for the HEG scenario. On average, over the projection period to 2035, global
economic growth rates are assumed to be 0.5% p.a. higher than in the Reference
Case. As with the previous scenario, prices are assumed to remain at Reference
Case levels, although, in this case, as discussed below, there could be additional
upward pressures.
The results for oil demand and supply in this higher growth scenario appear
in Tables 4.3 and 4.4. By the end of the projection, in 2035, oil demand is now
9.1 mb/d higher than in the Reference Case. Again, assuming this rise to be reflected
in higher OPEC supply only, the scenario sees OPEC crude production rising
131
Chapter
4