World Oil Outlook - Opec

100
0
typically < 200
Figure 2.9
Increase in volume of commercial vehicles, 2009–2035
Figure 2.9 NEW
1.4
1.0
200
150
100
50
0
millions
Eurasia
OECD
Figure 2.12
4.2 billion people live in
countries with < 1 car per 40 people
Other developing
countries
Asian developing
countries
1,000
by usage patterns, the efficiency of the fleet of vehicles using the internal combustion
mboe/d
engine 1.6 (ICE), and the pace of development and penetration of vehicle technologies,
including non-petroleum-based engines.
Developing countries
Usage patterns, in terms of the average distance travelled per vehicle varies over
1.2
time, between countries, and between individual in these countries. The major factors
affecting usage are:
• 0.8 Wealth levels, with high income countries that have high levels of car ownership
per capita typically experiencing saturation in usage rates; OECD
0.6
• Incomes can also affect usage in the opposite direction, with driving related to
0.4 the ability to pay, not only for the vehicle, but also for fuel;
• The age and gender structure of the population, with average annual miles per
0.2 driver tending to be lower for older, as well as female drivers;
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
11
• Infrastructure and public transport availability;
• Congestion;
• Consumer behaviour, for example, the effects of a rise in telecommuting; and
• Commercial vehicle usage, which is affected by a number of factors, such as
geography, economic conditions and vehicle size.
0
85
200
100
0
Othe
Latin
Middle East
Chapter
2
OECD
OECD Asia
OECD
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
O
m