World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Foreword
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, continuing excessive speculation in oil markets, a fragile financial and banking system, an anaemic economic recovery despite the extraordinary fiscal and monetary support, persistent high unemployment and social unrest in a number of countries have all made 2012 a challenging year for oil producers and consumers everywhere. The biggest hurdle facing the global oil market in 2012 remained the uncertainty surrounding the global economy. Risks stemming from the Euro-zone have heightened as a result of expanding public deficits, weakening economic growth, deleveraging in the banking system, as well as policy indecisiveness. The US appears more resilient, but its economic indicators throughout the year have been mixed. And in developing countries, economic growth is slowing, feeding concerns as to whether the difficulties in industrialized nations will spill over into their economies. Looking ahead, it is thus important to remain vigilant. The uncertainties regarding the prospects for the world’s major economies, as well as the potential adverse impacts of the enduring weaknesses of the international financial system, evidently constitute significant downside risk for oil markets. Yet, possible upside potential also exists and could have a sizable impact on oil prices and investment needs. The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) aims to cover such a comprehensive view, in a balanced way. This past year has also seen prolonged instability and tensions in a number of countries. These events, in turn, have impacted the oil market. There have been supply disruptions in South Sudan, Syria and Yemen. And, in addition, geopolitical-related problems have continued to impact parts of the Middle East and North Africa. Volatility and excessive speculation were also present in 2012. Crude prices showed an upward trend during the first quarter of 2012, followed by a drop during the second quarter, before recovering in the third. These price fluctuations were a reflection of divergent factors, including global economic prospects, supply disruptions, refinery outages and other downstream bottlenecks, as well as geopolitical concerns. It is recognized that speculative investment flows can, if excessive, contribute to a distortion of the price of crude, and detach it from the physical realities of supply and demand. It is essential to keep trying to mitigate price extremes. Important moves to address this issue are underway, and are covered in this WOO. 1 Foreword
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66:
Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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