World Oil Outlook - Opec

2035. As a result, crude throughputs are projected to expand from 6 mb/d in 2010 to
8 mb/d in 2020, and then to 9 mb/d in 2035. Product exports are projected to rise to
2.8 mb/d by 2020 and 3.8 mb/d by 2035, and comprise roughly half finished refined
products and half NGL streams.
In the region with the next highest required capacity additions, Latin America,
projections are for 1.4 mb/d by 2035, which is well below demand growth that is
seen as rising by 2.5 mb/d for the same period. This gap is primarily accounted for
by the projected substantial growth of 0.9 mb/d for biofuels in the region, dominated
by Brazil. Moreover, utilizations are expected to gradually rise from 75% in 2015 to
81% by 2035.
These figures, though, mask a key product trade relationship – namely the evolution
of product exports from the US to Latin America. In 2011, total product
exports from the US comprised 2.5 mb/d of finished refined products, supplemented
by nearly 0.2 mb/d each of NGLs/LPG and other liquids, comprising methyl tetrabutyl
ether (MTBE), ethanol and other gasoline blend components. The total of
2.9 mb/d is more than double the gross product exports since 2007, when the level
was 1.4 mb/d. Of the 2.9 mb/d of products exported in 2011, 1.5 mb/d went to
Latin America. 13 Of these, 0.6 mb/d went to Mexico and 0.9 mb/d to a wide range
of other countries across the Caribbean and Latin America. Exports were significant
and growing to Brazil (0.2 mb/d), Chile (0.1 mb/d), Panama (0.1 mb/d) and lay in
the range of 25,000–75,000 b/d (and generally growing) to another eight countries
in the region.
It is projected these exports will continue to grow to almost 1.9 mb/d by 2015
(from the US and Canada combined), then ease to 1.6 mb/d by 2020, and fall slightly
again to 1.5 mb/d by 2035. In the medium-term, the current trend of growing Latin
American imports from the US continues, but then, between 2015 and 2020, regional
capacity expansions take effect, led by major new refinery projects in Brazil, as well as
ethanol growth there, so that total product imports – including those from the US –
subsequently decline.
Distillation capacity additions in the FSU region are projected to rise by
0.9 mb/d by 2035. Chronologically, this can be divided into an initial surge of over
0.5 mb/d by 2015, in part a response to new Russian taxation rules and mandates for
modernization, followed by a long period from 2016–2035 when required additions
are projected to be 20,000 b/d or so each year. This second slow period of capacity
additions reflects modest demand growth in the region, a gradual increase in utilizations,
as well as constrained demand in Europe, a primary market for Russian product
exports. However, this relatively stagnant outlook for overall capacity requirements
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Chapter
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