World Oil Outlook - Opec

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238 US & Canada Latin America Figure 9.6 Figure 9.7 Global product imports by product type, 2015–2035 20 16 12 8 4 0 mb/d Africa Europe FSU Middle East Other products Residual fuel Middle distillates Gasoline Naphtha 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 naphtha. Global exports of middle distillates are projected to reach a level of almost 4 mb/d by 2015, and then close to 6 Figure mb/d 9.8 by 2035. A similar increase, in terms of volume, is foreseen for naphtha, although it starts from a lower base. However, while middle distillate imports are spread among the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa and mb/d Latin America regions, increased volumes of naphtha will be almost entirely absorbed 18 by the Asia-Pacific. This is driven by a rapid expansion of the petrochemical industry in China and India, as well as several other countries in the region. Moreover, increased trade volumes are also envisaged for the group of ‘other products’, 15 driven by exports of LPG (mainly NGL-based), bitumen and lubricants, among others. There is an overall increase in the inter-regional exports of other products of Asia-Pacific around 12 1 mb/d between 2015 and 2035. The 9 export increases of the products mentioned will be partially offset Europe by decreasing trade in gasoline and residual fuel oil. Combined, these fall by Africa around 1 mb/d between 2015 and 2035. Declining gasoline exports are mainly the result of falling 6demand for this product in the Atlantic Basin and increasing ethanol supplies, especially in the US. It is projected that the overall gasoline trade decline is in the range 3of 0.6 mb/d between 2015 and 2035. However, there is an additional element of uncertainty in these projections related to the degree to which refiners in Europe and the US will be able to resolve the problem of the projected future gasoline surplus 0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Middle East FSU Latin America US & Canada
Figure 9.7 in these two regions. The remaining decline of 0.4 mb/d in product exports is associated with mb/d residual fuel oil. This decline reflects this product’s expected demand reduction, due to falling inland use and marine bunker developments. 20 Gasoline Naphtha Figures 9.7 and 9.8 illustrate the trends in regional patterns for product imports in 16 terms of total imports and net product imports, respectively. The most obvious change in future product trade concerns the rising product imports of the Asia-Pacific, which reach 12 a level of almost 9 mb/d by 2035. These products will come from a variety of regions, led by the Middle East, and followed by Russia, Latin America and the US & Canada. Future product imports to the US & Canada are likely to oscillate around the levels 8 reached in 2011, particularly as the eastern part of the region is expected to continue importing products from the Atlantic Basin. However, overall net product exports from 4 the US & Canada are set to expand by around 1 mb/d by 2035, compared to 2011 levels, when the US became a net product exporter after decades of net imports. 0 With the new refining capacity in place after 2015, Latin America is also ex- 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 pected to turn from a net product importer to a net exporter. The level of net exports could reach 0.5 mb/d by 2020 and expand over time to 2 mb/d by the end of the forecast period. Figure 9.7 Figure 9.8 Global product imports by region, 2011–2035 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 mb/d Other products Residual fuel Middle distillates 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada 239 Chapter 9
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
Page 292 and 293: 276
Page 294 and 295: 278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297: 280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298: Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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World Oil Outlook - Opec

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