World Oil Outlook - Opec

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4 The data, analysis and any other information (‘Content’) contained in this publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your business, finance, investment consultant or other professional. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the Content of this publication, the OPEC Secretariat makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, currency or comprehensiveness and assumes no liability or responsibility for any error or omission and/or for any loss arising in connection with or attributable to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the Content of this publication. This publication may contain references to material(s) from third parties whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s). The OPEC Secretariat will not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of third party material(s). The views expressed in this publication are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of individual OPEC Member Countries. The material contained in this publication may be used and/or reproduced for educational and other non-commercial purposes without prior written permission from the OPEC Secretariat provided that the copyright holder is fully acknowledged. © OPEC Secretariat, 2012 Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna, Austria www.opec.org ISBN 978-3-9502722-4-6
OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, established in Baghdad, Iraq, 10–14 September 1960. The Organization comprises 12 Members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. Its objective is to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure a steady income to the producing countries; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the petroleum industry.
Page 3: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56:
India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58:
Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60:
By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62:
imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64:
Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66:
Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88:
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93:
76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151:
134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157:
140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159:
Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168:
At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190:
Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196:
Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242:
Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250:
The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269:
Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273:
256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
Page 277 and 278:
OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280:
Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282:
Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283:
World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287:
270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297:
280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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