World Oil Outlook - Opec

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API American Petroleum Institute ASB Annual Statistical Bulletin bcf Billion cubic feet b/d Barrels per day boe Barrels of oil equivalent CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CARB California Air Resources Board CCS Carbon capture and storage CDU Crude distillation unit CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission CNG Compressed natural gas CNOOC China National Offshore <strong>Oil</strong> Corporation CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CO 2 Carbon dioxide COMPERJ Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Complex CTLs Coal-to-liquids DCCI Downstream capital costs index DCs Developing countries ECAs Emission control areas ECB European Central Bank EFSF European Financial Stability Facility EIA Energy Information Administration EISA (US) Energy Independence and Security Act EOR Enhanced oil recovery EPA Environmental Protection Agency ERC Egypt Refining Company ESM European Stability Mechanism ESPO Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean EST ENI Slurry Technology EU European Union EU ETS EU Emissions Trading Scheme FCC Fluid catalytic cracking FSU Former Soviet Union FT Fischer-Tropsch FYP Five Year Plan 255 Annex A
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 273 and 274: OTC Over-the-counter OWEM OPEC’s
Page 275: OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM): def
Page 278 and 279: 262 Antigua and Barbuda Guatemala A
Page 280 and 281: 264 French Polynesia Solomon Island
Page 282 and 283: Annex C
Page 285 and 286: US & Canada United States of Americ
Page 287 and 288: Chad Sao Tome and Principe Comoros
Page 289 and 290: Asia-Pacific OECD Pacific Australia
Page 291 and 292: Major data sources
Page 293 and 294: Africa Oil & Gas Monitor American P
Page 295 and 296: International Oil Daily Internation
Page 297 and 298: World Health Organization Wood Mack
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