World Oil Outlook - Opec

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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d, respectively. In the period to 2015, capacity additions in China are almost double those in ‘Other Asia’. Beyond the medium-term, however, 2011–2035 capacity mb/d additions in China will gradually 5 slow, while Other Asia, mainly 2030–2035 2025–2030 India, 4 2020–2025 will retain momentum and 2015–2020 expand 2011–2015 by around 1 mb/d in ev- 3 ery five-year period. Capacity additions 2 in Latin America are seen at 1.4 mb/d, and both the FSU 1 and Africa are projected to rise by around 1 mb/d by 2035. 0 5 Crude distillation capacity additions in the Reference Case US & Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East 4 3 2 1 0 mb/d 2030–2035 2025–2030 2020–2025 2015–2020 2011–2015 US & Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East China Other Asia Refining sector set to increase its complexity In the entire forecast period to 2035, total conversion additions of 11.6 mb/d Global capacity requirements bry process type represent 85% of the distillation capacity additions. This 2011–20235 sustained high ratio re- mb/d flects the requirement to in- 25 crease light products yields, as Global capacity requirements bry process type Additional requirements to 2035 2011–20235 Additional requirements well to 2016 as the continuing need to mb/d 20 Projects to 2016 build hydro-cracking (almost 25 Additional requirements to 2035 Additional requirements to 2016 15 8 mb/d) to produce incremental distillate. Recent and cur- 20 Projects to 2016 10 rent substantial coking capac- 15 5 ity additions, together with the limited Figure export 7.4supply of heavy 10 sour crudes in the medium- 0 Crude distillation term, Conversionare leading Octane units to Desulphurization a coking 5 surplus. 0 Crude distillation Conversion Octane units Desulphurization It is estimated that 22 mb/d of additional desulphurization capacity will be required globally by 2035. The drive to continued tighter fuels sulphur standards will lead to desulphurization comprising the largest volume of capacity additions to 2035, nearly 1.5 times those for distillation. Future oil movements increasingly heading east Working age population in China and India Inter-regional trade of crude and liquid products increases by around 14 mb/d to a millions level of 73 mb/d by 2035, from 59 mb/d in 2011. millions 1,100 Working age population in China 1,000 and India India China 900 800 700 Crude distillation capacity additions in the Reference Case 2011–2035 China Other Asia India China Figure 7.3 F F Fi Bo
In the medium-term, the key factor is refining capacity expansion, primarily in the Middle East and Latin America, which will make more products available for export. This is supported by developments in the US & Canada region, with its declining demand and growing supply. The net result is a higher volume of product exports, with a relatively stagnant crude oil trade. In the long-term, growth in product exports will slow, as regional refining capacity is projected to grow more proportionally with regional demand after 2016. The majority of the oil export increase will be directed towards expanding Asian markets. Projected trade movements also emphasize the growing importance of the Middle East as the key crude exporting region in the decades ahead. Indeed, after a decline between 2011 and 2015, and then a minor increase between 2015 and 2020 (although, increased products exports partially compensate for a reduction in the first period and result in higher oil exports in the second period), crude oil exports from this region are set to grow by around 1 mb/d every five years, reaching almost 20 mb/d by 2035, compared to 17 mb/d in 2011. <strong>Oil</strong>-related investments between 2011 and 2035 estimated in the range of $6 to $7 trillion In the period to 2035, global refining investments are estimated to be around $1.3 trillion, out of which $230 billion will be needed for existing projects, $300 billion for required additions and around $750 billion for maintenance and replacement. The key components of the additional investments needed beyond the refinery gate – typically referred to as the midstream sector – relate to the necessary expansions in regional pipeline systems and tanker capacity that are required to move volumes of crude oil and liquid products. In addition to this, some investments will be necessary for loading and receiving ports, related storage capacity, and to expand the retail distribution network. Combined, midstream investment costs for the period to 2035 are estimated to be close to $1 trillion. Adding in upstream investment needs results in an estimated oil-related investment requirement in the Reference Case of somewhere in the range of $6 to $7 trillion, between 2011 and 2035. Human resource shortage remains a potential constraint With the oil industry continuing to expand, and the need to increasingly tap into resources in more frontier and challenging areas, the industry needs more skilled people. For a number of years, however, it has increasingly been observed that there is a shortage of human resources entering the industry. The issue can be traced back to the 1980s and 1990s when large scale downsizing led to a lack of recruitment into the 19 Executive summary
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283:
World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297:
280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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