World Oil Outlook - Opec

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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 4.1 OPEC crude oil supply in the three scenarios 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 mb/d 22 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 in these scenarios would point to alternative price paths to that of the Reference Case. Hence, uncertainties over these key drivers are intrinsically linked to large uncertainties (both upside and downside) regarding future oil price developments. Close attention needs to be continually paid to all of these elements, as well as OPEC capacity expansion plans, to understand what pressures might be expected upon oil prices in the coming years. Human resources With the oil industry continuing to expand, and the need to increasingly tap resources in more frontier and challenging areas, the industry needs more skilled people. For a number of years, however, it has increasingly been observed that there is a shortage of human resources entering the industry. This has also been highlighted in previous WOOs. The issue can be traced back to the 1980s and 1990s when large scale downsizing led to a lack of recruitment into the energy sector. At that time, many universities also cut back drastically on the number of people taking energy disciplines. In recent years, there has also been a dramatic expansion in the service and emerging knowledge LEG LSS HEG Reference Case Figur
economies, which has led to fierce competition for talent. And additionally, there is now a sizeable section of the industry’s workforce, particularly the large numbers that entered the industry in the 1970s, that are now approaching retirement. Earlier this year, Schlumberger, in its 2011 <strong>Oil</strong> & Gas Human Resources Benchmark Survey, 31 said that pressures on the industry’s technical workforce threaten the timely completion of projects. In the survey, up to 70% of national oil companies and 60% of major international oil companies acknowledged project delays due to staffing difficulties. It is apparent that there are no real short-term solutions. Meeting the human resource challenge will not happen overnight. The industry must look longterm. The industry is one characterized by long lead-times, and often long payback periods. The key is making the industry more appealing; to make it accepted as an inclusive and forward looking workplace. The industry needs to be sure it is well presented as a prime employment choice; a high-tech and diverse sector with great prospects. In fact, this needs to begin before actual employment – with education and training. It is important for the industry to be significantly involved in fostering and supporting new graduates and its potential workforce at an early stage. The focus is on further developing a better relationship between prospective employees, universities and the industry. This includes making sure that energy-related courses are open to all students from across the world, as well as furthering cooperation between universities around the globe, in terms of helping to facilitate the transfer of technologies and know-how. Moreover, it is also essential to underscore the issue of local content and the utilization of domestic companies. This is of particular importance to many oil and gas producing developing countries; in helping provide a strong platform for the country’s economic and social development. Technology and R&D Across the entire petroleum industry, technology has played a central role in its transformation over the decades. For instance, in terms of the way reserves are identified, developed, produced and delivered, leading to a massive growth in recoverable resources and supply, in converting crude into desirable fuels and products, in helping improve efficiencies and in continually improving the environmental credentials of both production processes and consumption. 135 Chapter 4
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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