World Oil Outlook - Opec

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240 Figure 9.9 NEW Figure 9.8 Net imports of products by region, 2015–2035 10 8 6 4 2 0 –2 –4 –6 –8 –10 mb/d 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada A pattern of declining product imports is expected in Europe. Currently, Europe is a net importer of around 1.5 mb/d of products. In the medium-term, similar levels are expected to be maintained, but in the longer term net imports are projected to decline by around 1 mb/d. This is a result of declining demand in the region. For the remaining regions, the FSU and the Middle East will keep their status as net product exporters. Net product exports from the FSU and the Middle East are set to grow, not only because of expansion in domestic refining capabilities, but also due to additional non-crude based products. In the case of the FSU, net product exports will grow from close to 2.5 mb/d in 2011 to around 3 mb/d by 2015. This growth will moderate in the following years, however, so that overall growth is expected to reach 1 mb/d by 2035, compared to 2011 levels. A similar increase is expected in the Middle East. It should be stressed, however, that these volumes depend on the future policies of the countries in these regions, as they have the option to add more refining capacity than projected in this year’s WOO, which will, in turn, increase their capacity for product exports.
Chapter 10 Downstream challenges This Chapter reflects on the analysis and findings of Section Two to highlight some of the key challenges facing the downstream sector. Since long-term trends are important drivers, some themes carry forward from year to year; but the situation is one that constantly evolves – and every year there is something new. Growth shift to non-OECD regions With each recent <strong>Outlook</strong>, it is ever more evident that there is a shift in impetus, growth and investment away from the OECD to non-OECD regions, as well as an associated sharp contrast between the Atlantic and Pacific Basins. It is also increasingly clear that OECD oil demand has peaked. The long-term oil demand trend in the US & Canada, Europe and Japan is down. In contrast, oil demand growth continues across all non-OECD regions with the main concentration in non-OECD Asia, led by China and India. These developments have led to a contrasting picture between the Atlantic and Pacific Basins, with the former (dominated by the US and Europe) having significant refining capacity surplus with associated product export potential, and the latter in need of continued refining capacity increases and/or additional product imports. Refining capacity surplus, competition and closure These shifts are reshaping the global downstream industry and will continue to do so in the years ahead: on-going closures in OECD regions contrasted by expansions in non-OECD regions. However, in a world of crude oil prices in the range of $100/b, the costs for transporting both crudes and products make up a smaller proportion of delivery costs compared to the past. This, combined with a near-term surge in refinery projects (7.2 mb/d by 2016) makes for a period of intense international competition – across both long and short distances – for product markets. Many US refineries, notably in the Gulf Coast, are already well depreciated, highly complex and flexible, meaning they can produce products that meet advanced specifications. Gulf Coast refiners, in particular, have progressively raised distillate yields and lowered those of gasoline. Led by the Gulf Coast region, US refiners are already demonstrating a marked ability to export increasing product volumes, as domestic ex-refinery product demand declines, and are benefitting from the added competitive advantage and current low price of natural gas. Sustained discounts on inland US Lower 48 and Western Canadian crude oils have been delivering processing 241 Chapter 10
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
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Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
Page 292 and 293: 276
Page 294 and 295: 278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297: 280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298: Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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World Oil Outlook - Opec

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