World Oil Outlook - Opec

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5 hane/LPG phtha soline t/Kerosene soil/Diesel sidual fuel* ther products** 154 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 5.4 Global product demand changes between Figure 5.4 2010 and 2035 12 9 6 3 0 –3 mb/d Ethane/ LPG 2011 projections 2012 projections Naphtha Gasoline Jet/ Kerosene * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Figure 5.6 Figure 5.8 Diesel/ Gasoil Residual fuel* Other products** mb/d Upward revisions to ethane 6 3 and LPG demand, compared to last year’s WOO, have also been made. These reflect recent developments in the gas sector, primarily a projection of US higher shale gas production, as well as some other regions, given its higher production of associated liquids. Ethane/LPG Naphtha Another 4 major revision was made in the category of ‘other products’, primarily Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual fuel* Other products** related to the progressive elimination of direct crude burning in line with recently announced policies, for example, in Saudi Arabia. However, there are significant regional variations in projected demand changes for this grouping, as well as differences in demand trends for specific products within the group. 2 These variants span declines in demand in Europe and North America – within the range of 1% to 2% p.a. – to strong increases in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, with average regional growth rates between 2% and 3% p.a. At the product level, de- 0 mand for such products as bitumen, lubricants, waxes and solvents is strongly linked mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 to economic growth, whereas the production of still gas, coke and sulphur are very much a function of the growth or decline in refining activity, both throughput and secondary processing.
Regional product demand to 2035 Turning to the regional distribution of product demand, Table 5.2 provides an overview of mb/d the breakdown of product demand in the major regions. 2.5 Asia-Pacific 2.0 LPG Kerosene Gasoil fuel* products** Figure 5.3 Product demand Africagrowth in the Asia-Pacific region dominates future trends with the Latin America region accounting US & Canada for more than 80% of the global growth in petroleum product demand. 1.5 Moreover, the region’s product demand is largely determined by what happens in China and India. Strong growth in these two countries pulls up the region’s demand growth 1.0 to an annual average of 2% between 2010 and 2035, despite the fact that demand in the region’s industrialized countries – Japan, Australia and New Zealand – is projected to decline by more than 1 mb/d over the same period. This represents 0.5 a net average annual demand increase of 0.7 mb/d. It means that petroleum product demand for the Asia-Pacific by 2035 is expected to be around 44 mb/d (Figure 5.5). 0 2010 Diesel, naphtha 2015and gasoline 2020will be the 2025 main products 2030contributing 2035to the Asia- Pacific increased demand. Diesel expansion will see the largest growth, contributing Figure 5.5 Figure 5.5 <strong>Outlook</strong> for oil demand by product, Asia-Pacific, 2010–2035 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Figure 5.7 155 12 9 6 3 0 –3 0 mb/d Chapter 5 mb/d mb/ mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Ethane/LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual fuel* Other products** 6 4 2 0 5 Et L mb/d
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
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Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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