World Oil Outlook - Opec

Chapter 2
Oil demand by sector
This Chapter explores in detail the sectoral oil consumption patterns that underpin
the Reference Case demand figures presented in Chapter 1.
Transportation, consisting of road, aviation, internal waterways, rail and international
bunkers, accounted for 57% of global oil use in 2009. This is set to increase to
61% by 2035. This demonstrates the importance of focusing upon the many drivers
that affect oil demand in the transportation sector, including policies and technological
development.
The petrochemical industry and other industrial usage accounts for more than
one-quarter of all oil consumed, while households and agriculture, together with some
consumption in the commercial sector, contribute around 10%. Globally, little oil is
used to produce electricity, although in some countries this remains an important fuel,
such as in Greece, Italy, Japan and Mexico, as well as some OPEC countries.
Road transportation
All previous WOOs have pointed to the transportation sector as the key to future oil
demand growth. This is unsurprising, given the limited fuel switching possibilities in
this sector, and the expected continued demand growth for mobility. The low price
elasticity, together with, in many countries, the presence of a large tax buffer, limit the
impact upon demand of the higher oil price assumptions outlined in Chapter 1.
With the on-going significance of this sector for oil demand growth, it is vital to
improve understanding of the dynamics of this sector’s growth, and identify possible
constraints and uncertainties. A key distinction is the growth potential for passenger
cars and commercial vehicles. 10 The importance of this disaggregation derives from
the marked differences in the key growth drivers for these two types of vehicles. In
particular, while the concept of saturation is important for the ownership of passenger
cars, at least at higher income levels, it is the nature and pace of economic growth and
trade that is of more relevance to the expansion of the stock of commercial vehicles.
Passenger car ownership
Table 2.1 shows the levels of passenger car ownership in 2009 across the various regions,
as well as for many countries in those regions. In this year, there were more than
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