World Oil Outlook - Opec

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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact is also felt elsewhere. The Additional European requirements to Union 2016 (EU) contributes to 20 Projects to 2016 around a fifth of global GDP and is the most important trading partner to many large emerging economies, such as China. However, 15 it is assumed that monetary and fiscal measures, accompanied by budget-deficit reduction measures, including austerity, as well as growth-inducing incentives, will 10 help the Euro-zone to gradually improve its economic prospects and by 2015 return to more normal growth patterns, with posi- 5 tive impacts on the global stage. Growing global population, but shrinking working-age strata in many countries Demographics is a key driver for economic growth, as well as energy demand. It is important in terms of changes to the total number of people and in changing age structures, with the latter having significant implications for the size of the working-age population. Global population rises from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.6 billion in 2035. This increase comes predominantly from developing countries, which accounts for 92% of the rise. By 2022, India will have overtaken China to become the most populous country on the planet. And there is a significant shift occurring in age structures: while the past has seen labour forces consistently grow across all regions, this is now becoming a shrinking trend in many cases. This is a strong dynamic for economic growth potential. The Chinese working-age population, for example, is expected to start declining within three years. This contrasts with demographic trends in India, where higher birth rates feed into a steadily rising workingage population. 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 25 0 millions 1,100 mb/d Additional requirements to 2035 Crude distillation Conversion Octane units Desulphurization Working age population in China and India 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Long-term economic growth averages 3.4% per annum Long-term economic growth rate assumptions reflect demographic trends, as well as progressively smaller rates of productivity improvement. Over the period 2012–2035, long-term economic growth rates average 3.4% per annum (p.a.). By 2035, the Chinese economy will be larger than any other country and even larger than entire regions within the OECD, such as America and Europe. India, which in 2010 accounted for 5% of global GDP, rises to 11% by 2035 and will then have a larger economy than the whole OECD Asia-Pacific region. Within ten years, India is expected to be growing faster than China, partly due to demographic trends that reduce the dependency India China Global capacity requirements bry process type 2011–20235 World supply of primary energy by fuel type mboe/d 400 Nuclear/Hydro/Biomass/Other renewables 350 Gas Coal Oil 300
6.1 re 6.6 India rate and raise the savings ratio, thus 1,000supporting Chinainvestment. The share of developing Asian countries in the world’s economic activity rises in the Reference Case from 26% 900 in 2010 to 43% by 2035. OECD regions will nevertheless continue to benefit from 800 higher GDP per capita. Poverty, though retreating, unfortunately remains widespread in the developing world. 700 The Reference Case considers only current policies 500 The WOO has consistently presented a Reference Case based on policies already in place. Recent policies that have been 400factored in include the EU package of measures 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 for climate change and renewable objectives, and the US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). The Reference Case does not, however, include effects from policies that are currently being proposed or that may be thought to be more likely in the longer term. This is left for scenario analysis. Energy demand in the Reference Case increases by 54% over the period 2010–2035 Over the period 2010–2035, primary energy demand in the Reference Case increases by 54%. Fossil fuels, currently accounting for 87% of this, will still make up 82% of the global total by 2035. For most of the projection period, oil will remain the energy type with the largest share. However, towards the end of the projection period, coal use in the Reference Case reaches similar levels as that of oil, with oil’s share having fallen from 35% in 2010 to 27% by 2035. Natural gas use will rise at faster rates than either coal or oil, both in percentage terms and quantities, with its share rising from 23% to 26%. 1,100 600 millions Working age population in China and India World supply of primary energy by fuel type mboe/d 400 Nuclear/Hydro/Biomass/Other renewables 350 Gas Coal Oil 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1960 2010 2035 Shale gas has large potential, but mainly in the US for now There is clearly potential for shale gas on the world energy scene. The main use of this gas in the foreseeable future will be to replace coal in electricity generation, and as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector. However, shale gas development is in its infancy, and there are considerable uncertainties about the size of the resources, the economics of development and the potential contribution to future supply. Currently, shale gas production is coming primarily from North America (mainly the US). 9 Executive summary F B F
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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