World Oil Outlook - Opec
World Oil Outlook - Opec
World Oil Outlook - Opec
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12<br />
Demand for OPEC crude stays essentially flat over the medium-term<br />
Turning to supply, the medium-term Reference Case outlook sees growth in non-OPEC<br />
liquids supply over 2011–2016. It rises by over 4 mb/d, mainly from shale oil in the<br />
US, Canadian oil sands, and crude oil from the Caspian and Brazil. These compensate<br />
for expected declines elsewhere. For example, combined supply from OECD Europe<br />
and Mexico falls by close to 1 mb/d over this period. As with earlier Reference Cases, a<br />
rise in OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) is expected over the medium-term, increasing<br />
from 5.2 mb/d in 2011 to 6.4 mb/d in 2016. These supply projections, along with those<br />
already outlined for demand, imply that the amount of OPEC crude required over the<br />
medium-term will stay essentially flat. However, total OPEC liquids supply rises. OPEC<br />
crude oil spare capacity is expected to exceed 5 mb/d as early as 2013/14.<br />
OPEC is investing heavily<br />
Even in the face of uncertainties about future oil demand, OPEC Member Countries<br />
continue to invest heavily in exploration, development, refining and transport in order<br />
to maintain and expand supply capacities. According to the latest list of upstream<br />
projects in the OPEC Secretariat’s database, Member Countries are undertaking or<br />
planning around 116 development projects during the five-year period 2012–2016.<br />
This corresponds to an estimated investment of about $270 billion, and demonstrates<br />
the scale of OPEC’s portfolio of projects. It is estimated, given Reference Case assumptions<br />
and projections, as well as natural declines in existing fields, that total<br />
OPEC liquids capacity will rise by 5 mb/d over this period, although investment<br />
decisions and plans will obviously be influenced by various factors, such as the global<br />
economic situation, policies and the price of oil.<br />
Large diversity of liquids supply sources over the long-term<br />
A central result that emerges from the assessment of long-term liquids supply is<br />
that resources are plentiful, and the sources of supply are diverse. Total non-OPEC<br />
liquids supply in the long-term increases strongly, by more than 10 mb/d over these years:<br />
supply increases in crude and NGLs from the Caspian, Russia, Brazil and US shale oil, as<br />
<strong>World</strong> liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d<br />
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
OECD 20.0 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.9<br />
Developing countries, excl. OPEC 16.9 17.8 19.2 19.3 19.1 19.3<br />
Eurasia 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5<br />
Processing gains 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0<br />
Total non-OPEC 52.3 55.8 58.6 60.1 61.1 62.7<br />
OPEC NGLs 4.9 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.4<br />
OPEC GTLs 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6<br />
OPEC crude 29.3 29.6 30.9 32.5 33.8 34.9