World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Earlier WOOs have also emphasized the relevance of population movements from
rural to urban areas. The urbanization trend in developing countries in particular is set
to continue at a swift pace. Figure 1.5 shows the expected rise by city class size. Almost
three-quarters of the population increase to 2025 will be in cities with more than 1 million
inhabitants; and, by 2025, the number of cities with a population greater than 10
million will rise from 23 to 37, with nine of these in developing Asia. (The number of
such cities in China and India alone will go from seven to 12.) Energy demand patterns
will be strongly associated with these developments, as urbanization is usually associated
with improved access to commercial energy and reductions in energy poverty. The
implications for oil use are mixed, as growing urban road transportation needs are increasingly
brought into conflict with attendant congestion and local pollution concerns.
Economic growth
The long-term economic growth rate assumptions appear in Table 1.3. The slowing
growth over time reflects both the demographic trends already identified, as well as
progressively smaller rates of productivity growth. Over the period 2012–2035, longterm
economic growth rates average 3.4% p.a.
Table 1.3
Long-term economic growth rates in the Reference Case % p.a.
2012–2020 2021–2035 2012–2035
OECD America 2.4 2.3 2.3
OECD Europe 1.4 1.6 1.5
OECD Asia Oceania 1.9 1.4 1.6
OECD 1.9 1.9 1.9
Latin America 3.3 2.8 3.0
Middle East & Africa 3.2 3.1 3.1
India 6.6 5.9 6.2
China 7.6 5.4 6.2
Other Asia 3.8 3.0 3.3
OPEC 3.8 3.2 3.4
Developing countries 5.5 4.5 4.9
Russia 3.4 2.5 2.8
Other Eurasia 2.8 2.3 2.5
Eurasia 3.1 2.4 2.7
World 3.6 3.3 3.4