World Oil Outlook - Opec

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66 Liquids supply in the long-term A central result that emerges from the assessment of the long-term supply of liquids is that resources are plentiful and that the sources of this supply are extremely diverse. Crude oil and NGL projections to 2035 are based on the resource base estimates from the US Geological Survey (USGS) 8 of ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of crude oil and NGLs. As described in Chapter 4, adjustments to these figures have been made in the past to account for countries that plainly have a resource base of crude and/or NGLs, given that production is underway, but for which the USGS data contains no estimated URR value. But recently a new assessment has become available from the USGS which supersedes earlier estimates. It should be stressed that estimates by the USGS for crude resources do not include shale oil resources. As we have seen in the medium-term Reference Case, a rapid revision to expectations for the contribution of this source of crude oil to the liquids supply has been taking place. The long-term potential for shale oil is, therefore, also reflected in this Reference Case. However, because of the rapid decline rates experienced with this form of supply and the considerable infrastructural challenges (particularly those related to transportation), as well as the fact that the best plays are tapped first, it is not expected that the rapid acceleration of supply growth over this decade will continue indefinitely. A slower build-up of shale oil supply is, therefore, incorporated into the post-2020 outlook. The non-OPEC liquids supply outlook is completed by the assessment of the long-term potential for biofuels and other liquids. These are expected to be important sources of additional oil over the projection period, although they remain subject to their own constraints and challenges. These are examined further in Chapter 3. Total non-OPEC liquids supply increases strongly in the long-term, as shown in Table 1.8, by more than 10 mb/d: increases in crude and NGLs supply from the Caspian, Russia, Brazil and shale oil in the US, as well as steady increases in biofuels and oil sands, are far stronger than decreases elsewhere. Non-OPEC supply from Canadian oil sands and biofuels in the US, Europe and Brazil continues to grow strongly, by close to 11 mb/d. Global NGLs supply rises by close to 7 mb/d over these years. These developments mean that OPEC crude supply needs to rise in the Reference Case, but at a modest rate. By 2035, it would need to be just 35 mb/d, around 5 mb/d higher than in 2010. This would mean that the share of OPEC crude in global liquids supply remains approximately constant, at around 32%, throughout the whole forecast period (Figure 1.28).
The total increase of non-crude liquids supply will satisfy more than 90% of the increase in demand to 2035. In the 2020–2035 period, non-crude supply increases from non-OPEC regions will account for more than 80% of all increases in liquids supply. However, non-OPEC crude is set to decline over the projection period. It also becomes evident that crude supply in the Reference Case would at no point in the projection need to exceed 73 mb/d (Figures 1.29, 1.30 and 1.31). Figures 1.32 to 1.34 show the regional liquids supply paths in the Reference Case. Table 1.8 <strong>World</strong> liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 US & Canada 12.0 14.8 16.0 17.1 17.9 18.9 Mexico & Chile 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 OECD Europe 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 OECD Asia Oceania 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 OECD 20.0 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.9 Latin America 4.7 5.6 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 Middle East & Africa 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 Asia 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 China 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.0 DCs, excl. OPEC 16.9 17.8 19.2 19.3 19.1 19.3 Russia 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 Other Eurasia 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 Eurasia 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 Processing gains 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 Non–OPEC 52.3 55.8 58.6 60.1 61.1 62.7 OPEC (incl. NGLs) 34.2 36.1 38.4 41.0 43.3 44.9 OPEC NGLs 4.9 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.4 OPEC GTLs* 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 OPEC crude 29.3 29.6 30.9 32.5 33.8 34.9 <strong>World</strong> supply 86.5 92.0 97.1 101.1 104.4 107.5 * Future growth of other liquids in OPEC is expected to be dominated by GTLs. This item includes other non-crude streams, such as MTBE. 67 Chapter 1
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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