World Oil Outlook - Opec

to accelerate, averaging more than 8% p.a. over the period 2010–2035, the fastest
growth of all energy types. Growth in non-OECD countries will be more rapid than
in the OECD, particularly in China and India (Figure 1.13). Starting from a low base,
however, means that the share of this group of renewables is just 3.5% by 2035. Hydropower
is also expected to grow strongly, primarily in developing countries, which
account for over 80% of the increase to 2035. Asia is already the largest user of hydropower
(Figure 1.14). More than half of the global increase will be in China alone.
However, as with other renewables, the global share of hydropower remains modest
since it starts from a relatively low base.
Increases in energy demand by fuel type for OECD and non-OECD countries
are shown in Figure 1.15. As in earlier projections, the dominant growth is in fossil
fuel use in non-OECD countries. In this year’s Reference Case, however, it has become
apparent that the single biggest demand increase is for gas use in non-OECD
countries.
The prevalence of energy poverty in developing countries and the consequent
requirement to satisfy future development needs with higher energy use is refl ected in
the Reference Case projections. Figure 1.16 shows that by 2035, the OECD will still
Other renewables consumption at end 2011
(terawatt hours)
Figure 1.12
Other renewables consumption at end 2011 Terawatt hours
North America
227.1
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012.
50.1
S. & Central
America
362.8
Africa
5.5
OECD Europe
Middle East
0.4
Eurasia
9.8
Asia Pacific
205.0
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