World Oil Outlook - Opec

industry. Total ‘industry’ oil usage in 2009 accounted for 28% of the global figure.
Petrochemicals alone accounted for almost 11%, as a feedstock and as energy to transform
feedstocks into end products. Over 60% of petrochemical oil use is in OECD
countries (Figure 2.13). Among developing countries, more than 90% of oil use is in
OPEC or Asia. However, what these relative rates of usage disguise, is that the increase
in oil use in the petrochemicals sector over the past decade has been predominantly in
developing countries (Figure 2.14).
The Reference Case outlook for oil use in the petrochemical sector is presented
in Tables 2.13 and 2.14. Demand in developing countries increases to 5.5 mboe/d
by 2035, similar to the level in OECD countries by that year. By 2030, non-OECD
oil use in the petrochemicals sector will exceed that of OECD countries. The key to
demand growth is in OPEC and developing Asia, which together account for threequarters
of the global increase. The closure of steam crackers operating in OECD
countries is likely, particularly in the US. A key uncertainty over the growth in oil demand
for this sector concerns competition from natural gas, which currently benefits
from a favourable large price spread.
Table 2.13
Oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case mboe/d
Levels Growth
2009 2010 2020 2035 2009–2035
OECD America 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 0.3
OECD Europe 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.1
OECD Asia Oceania 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.1
OECD 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.6 0.5
Latin America 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1
Middle East & Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
India 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
China 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.4
Other Asia 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.4
OPEC 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.2 1.5
Developing countries 2.9 3.0 3.9 5.5 2.6
Russia 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1
Other Eurasia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Eurasia 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1
World 8.6 8.8 9.9 11.9 3.3
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