World Oil Outlook - Opec

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
–1
tb/d
0
US &
Additional cumulative refinery crude runs
Canada
required and potential*
Potential – based on projects
Potential – projects minus closures
Required – Reference Case
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
*Potential: based on expected capacity expansion and 0.5 closures.
*Required: based on projected demand increases.
Further scope (and need) for more capacity rationalization
Refinery Distillation closures capacity in 2011 additions and from existing projects
2012 – primarily in 2012–2016 OECD
regions mb/d – reduced spare ca-
mb/d
2.5 pacity levels below 4 mb/d, 10
but unless more refineries
2.0
are closed, new refining proj-
8
Effect of refinery closures
ects in developing countries
1.5
should bring it back above
6
Figure 6.1
5 1.0mb/d
towards the end of the
4
medium-term. This indicates
0.5 that there is scope (and need) for
2
more capacity rationalization to 0
0
improve US & refinery Latin utilizations Africa Europe and FSU Middle China Other
Canada
margins.
America
East
Asia
China Other
by less than 1%. In 2013, un-
East
Asia
less more refineries close than
are currently on the list, the
cumulative gap will be broadly
2008–2014
maintained, before narrowing
somewhat in 2014 and then
emerging Figure as 6.3 a surplus only in
2015. In total, by the end of
the medium-term horizon, the
industry will continue to experience
a capacity surplus, one
that has been gradually building
since 2009.
Current Estimated refining distillation projects capacity closures represent as of mid-2012 a substantial proportion of future
capacity requirements 2008–2014
mb/d Cumulative total additions to crude distillation capacity are projected to reach
2.0
14.9 mb/d by 2035, compared to the 2011 base. Significantly, almost 50% of these
additions are projected to be onstream by 2016. Therefore, the industry is witnessing
1.5 a capacity surge in the short- to medium-term, which results in a much slower rate of
additions being needed thereafter, through to 2035.
1.0
In terms of the regional breakdown, the vast majority of the refining capacity expansions
0.5 to 2035 are projected for the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, with 8.3 and
0
Europe US & Canada Asia Latin America
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1990
Global spare distillation capacity*, 1990–2016
0
mb/d
Latin
America
Estimated distillation capacity closures as of mid-2012
Global spare distillation capacity*, 1990–2016
1995
Africa Europe FSU Middle
Europe US & Canada Asia Latin America
2000
2005
*Equal to 85% distillation capacity less crude runs.
2010
2015
17
Executive summary
Figu