World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference Basket price is a production–weighted average of an OPEC basket of crudes consisting of: Saharan Blend (Algeria); Girassol (Angola); Oriente (Ecuador); Iran Heavy (IR Iran); Basrah Light (Iraq); Kuwait Export (Kuwait); Ess Sider (Libya); Bonny Light (Nigeria); Qatar Marine (Qatar); Arab Light (Saudi Arabia); Murban (United Arab Emirates); and Merey (Venezuela). 2. OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2011, Bank of International Settlements, May 2012. 3. G-20 Leaders Declaration, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, September 2009. 4. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm. The 2012 revisions are due to be released in early 2013. 5. Standards for international bunker fuels are administered by the IMO under the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships known as MARPOL. 6. Excluding non-commercial use of biomass. 7. Supply is higher than demand to account for stock growth. 8. US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results. 9. World Research Institute’s online database: http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/ index.php?theme=3. 10. In this assessment, the term commercial vehicles is used to mean lorries and buses, as documented and published by the International Road Federation. Passenger cars are designed to seat no more than nine persons (including the driver). Sport utility vehicles are included in this analysis. 11. For example, http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm. 12. For instance, the introduction of the more stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards as part of the US Energy Independence and Security Act legislation in December 2007. And the December 2010 proposal by the US Environment Protection Agency to raise new vehicle economy standards to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This policy represents a 60% rise over the 2016 targets that are already in place, and implies a dramatic change in average fuel use per vehicle. It is important to stress, however, that a key variable in this is an assessment of how likely it is that any given target will be met. 13. American Transportation Research Institute, survey 2008. 14. US Natural Gas Act 2011. 15. Forbes.com, June 2012. 16. International Civil Aviation Organization, http://icaodata.com. 17. Centre for Aviation, http://www.centreforaviation.com/analysis/eu-ets-and-the-aviation-industry-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place-52146. 18. Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), March 2012, OPEC Secretariat. 19. World Petroleum Assessment 2000, US Geological Survey. 20. ‘An estimate of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of the world, 2012’, US Geological Survey, April 2012. 249 Footnotes
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
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Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
Page 292 and 293: 276
Page 294 and 295: 278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297: 280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298: Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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