World Oil Outlook - Opec

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List of boxes Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap derivatives market beginning to take shape Box 1.2 The Euro-zone debt crisis: one year after the 2011 Greece bailout Box 1.3 India to overtake China in economic growth Box 2.1 Natural gas for America’s highways: how long is the road? Box 3.1 Shale: on the rise, but challenges remain Box 5.1 Will LNG become an important new bunker fuel? Box 6.1 Refinery closures: down, down, down... Box 6.2 US and Canada: avoiding major refinery closures? Box 9.1 Pipeline, rail, barge...any way out! Box 10.1 Process technology developments – traditionally slow paced, but too risky to ignore List of tables Table 1.1 Real GDP growth assumptions in the medium-term Table 1.2 Population levels and growth, 2010–2035 Table 1.3 Long-term economic growth rates in the Reference Case Table 1.4 World supply of primary energy in the Reference Case Table 1.5 Medium-term oil demand outlook in the Reference Case Table 1.6 World oil demand outlook in the Reference Case Table 1.7 Medium-term liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 1.8 World liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger car ownership in 2009 Table 2.2 Projections of passenger car ownership rates to 2035 Table 2.3 Commercial vehicles in the Reference Case Table 2.4 Average growth in oil use per vehicle Table 2.5 Oil demand in road transportation in the Reference Case Table 2.6 Growth in oil demand in road transportation in the Reference Case Table 2.7 Oil demand in aviation in the Reference Case Table 2.8 Growth in oil demand in aviation in the Reference Case Table 2.9 Oil demand in rail and domestic navigation in the Reference Case Table 2.10 Growth in oil demand in rail and domestic navigation in the Reference Case Table 2.11 Oil demand in marine bunkers in the Reference Case Table 2.12 Growth in oil demand in marine bunkers in the Reference Case Table 2.13 Oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case Table 2.15 Oil demand in other industry in the Reference Case
Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in other industry in the Reference Case Table 2.17 Oil demand in residential/commercial/agriculture in the Reference Case Table 2.18 Growth in oil demand in residential/commercial/agriculture in the Reference Case Table 2.19 Oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case Table 2.20 Growth in oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 3.2 Non-OPEC other liquids supply outlook (excluding biofuels) in the Reference Case Table 3.3 Non-OPEC biofuel supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 3.4 Estimates of world crude oil and NGLs resources Table 3.5 Non-OPEC crude oil and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 3.6 Non-OPEC other liquids supply outlook (excluding biofuels) in the Reference Case Table 3.7 Non-OPEC biofuel supply outlook in the Reference Case Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG scenario Table 4.2 OPEC crude oil supply in the LEG scenario Table 4.3 Oil demand in the HEG scenario Table 4.4 OPEC crude oil supply in the HEG scenario Table 4.5 Liquids supply in the LSS scenario Table 5.1 Global product demand, shares and growth, 2011–2035 Table 5.2 Refined product demand by region Table 5.3 Expected regional gasoline sulphur content Table 5.4 Expected regional on-road diesel sulphur content Table 6.1 Distillation capacity additions from existing projects, by region Table 6.2 Estimation of secondary process additions from existing projects, 2012–2016 Table 7.1 Global demand growth and refinery distillation capacity additions by period Table 7.2 Crude unit throughputs and utilizations Table 7.3 Global capacity requirements by process, 2011–2035 List of figures Figure 1.1 OPEC Reference Basket price before and after WOO 2011 Figure 1.2 IHS CERA upstream capital and operating cost indices (UCCI and UOCI), 2000=100 Figure 1.3 Population of the world in three variants Figure 1.4 Top ten increases in population, 2010–2035 Figure 1.5 Total population by city class size
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62:
imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280:
Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282:
Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283:
World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287:
270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297:
280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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