World Oil Outlook - Opec

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186 Box figure 2 Figure 2 Estimated distillation capacity closures by region as of mid-2012, 2008–2014 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 mb/d Europe US & Canada Asia Latin America China is another case where legislation is likely to have an impact, though it seems, the effect could be double-sided. In an effort to eliminate small independent refineries, known as ‘social’ or ‘teapot’ refineries, China’s central government in 2011 raised the minimum capacity limit to around 40,000 b/d, effective as of 2014; anything below this requires refineries to close. Since then, these small, but numerous refineries have been seeking partnerships with investors to expand above the required limit and many of them have reportedly been successful. Some will inevitably close, but it looks as though a principal, albeit unintended, consequence of the regulation is that it has increased – rather than cut – the aggregate capacity of small refineries. Separately, the Fushun refinery in China was closed in 2011 after an explosion. Elsewhere in the region, Shell and Caltex announced closures of their Australian refineries in Clyde and Sydney, respectively. The wave of closures has also hit the US and Canada, including refineries in the US territories in the Caribbean (reported under Latin America in Figure 2). Between 2010 and 2011, five refineries were closed on the East Coast, namely Sunoco’s Eagle Point and Marcus Hook plants, Chevron’s Perth Amboy, Western Refining’s facility at Yorktown and the Montreal refinery owned by Shell. In addition, two other refineries, that of Sunoco in Philadelphia and Phillips66 at Trainer, have seen ‘narrow escapes’ from closures. However, these do not necessarily mean that these refineries will remain in business in the long-term. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0
Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on the US East Coast is complicated by closures in the broader region, 1.8 which include the export oriented Hovensa refinery in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, Valero’s refinery Latin America in Aruba, as well as two plants in Puerto Rico. 1.5 The situation is less Europe dramatic elsewhere in the US and Canada. On the US West Coast, 1.2only two smaller refineries have been shut down to date – one in Bakersfield, California, and the other a unit of Western Refining in New Mexico. However, 0.9 BP has put its refineries at Carson, California, and Texas City, Texas, up for sale. Both are highly complex facilities for which BP expects to find buyers during 2012/2013. 0.6 Figure 0.33 presents the cumulative capacity closures since 2008, including known closures announced for 2013 and 2014. Globally they have already reached 4 mb/d and are 0 heading for the 5 mb/d mark and potentially higher, as currently there are at least 15 refineries 2008 known 2009 to be 2010 on sale globally. 2011 What 2012 is also 2013 important 2014to note is the size and complexity of the closed refineries. The story is no longer solely about small and simple plants: To name just a few, the Hovensa refinery on the US Virgin Islands had a capacity of 0.5 mb/d; Wilhelmshaven, Germany, was 0.26 mb/d; Valero’s Aruba refinery was 0.23 mb/d; Petroplus’ Coryton, UK, was 0.22 mb/d, with a Nelson complexity index of 12. Box figure 3 Figure 3 Cumulative distillation capacity closures as of mid-2012, 2008–2014 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 mb/d Asia US & Canada Latin America Asia US & Canada Europe 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 187 Chapter 6
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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