World Oil Outlook - Opec

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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays essentially flat over the medium-term Turning to supply, the medium-term Reference Case outlook sees growth in non-OPEC liquids supply over 2011–2016. It rises by over 4 mb/d, mainly from shale oil in the US, Canadian oil sands, and crude oil from the Caspian and Brazil. These compensate for expected declines elsewhere. For example, combined supply from OECD Europe and Mexico falls by close to 1 mb/d over this period. As with earlier Reference Cases, a rise in OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) is expected over the medium-term, increasing from 5.2 mb/d in 2011 to 6.4 mb/d in 2016. These supply projections, along with those already outlined for demand, imply that the amount of OPEC crude required over the medium-term will stay essentially flat. However, total OPEC liquids supply rises. OPEC crude oil spare capacity is expected to exceed 5 mb/d as early as 2013/14. OPEC is investing heavily Even in the face of uncertainties about future oil demand, OPEC Member Countries continue to invest heavily in exploration, development, refining and transport in order to maintain and expand supply capacities. According to the latest list of upstream projects in the OPEC Secretariat’s database, Member Countries are undertaking or planning around 116 development projects during the five-year period 2012–2016. This corresponds to an estimated investment of about $270 billion, and demonstrates the scale of OPEC’s portfolio of projects. It is estimated, given Reference Case assumptions and projections, as well as natural declines in existing fields, that total OPEC liquids capacity will rise by 5 mb/d over this period, although investment decisions and plans will obviously be influenced by various factors, such as the global economic situation, policies and the price of oil. Large diversity of liquids supply sources over the long-term A central result that emerges from the assessment of long-term liquids supply is that resources are plentiful, and the sources of supply are diverse. Total non-OPEC liquids supply in the long-term increases strongly, by more than 10 mb/d over these years: supply increases in crude and NGLs from the Caspian, Russia, Brazil and US shale oil, as <strong>World</strong> liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 OECD 20.0 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.9 Developing countries, excl. OPEC 16.9 17.8 19.2 19.3 19.1 19.3 Eurasia 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 Processing gains 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 Total non-OPEC 52.3 55.8 58.6 60.1 61.1 62.7 OPEC NGLs 4.9 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.4 OPEC GTLs 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 OPEC crude 29.3 29.6 30.9 32.5 33.8 34.9
10 8 6 4 Incremental OPEC and non-OPEC supply in the Reference Case well as steady increases in biofuels and oil sands, are far stronger than declines elsewhere. Non-OPEC supply from Canadian oil sands and biofuels in the US, Europe and Figure Brazil 1.30 continues to grow Non-crude Non-crude strongly, by close to 11 mb/d. 2 0 Crude Crude Crude Global NGLs supply rises by close to 7 mb/d over these years. These –2 –4 Crude developments mean that OPEC crude supply needs to rise in the –6 2010–2020 2020–2035 Reference Case, but at a modest rate: by 2035, it would need to be just 35 mb/d, around 5 mb/d higher than in 2010. It means the share of OPEC crude in global liquids supply remains approximately constant, at around 32%, throughout the whole period. Shale oil represents a large change to the supply picture In previous WOO Reference Cases, no significant shale oil contribution to liquids supply was envisaged. This year a rise in the importance of shale oil is expected. However, it should be noted that future production is likely to be beset by several constraints and challenges, such as environmental concerns, questions over the availability of equipment and skilled labour, rising costs and steep well-production declines. Nevertheless, resource development is moving rapidly in the US and production has OPEC markedly crude oil supply increased: in the three supply scenarios from Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara in the mb/d US is already over 1 mb/d, and despite severe decline rates, emerging forecasts now 44 see oil shale supply rising rapidly. In the Reference Case, an estimate of 2 mb/d 42 and 3 mb/d for shale oil is assumed to emerge by 2020 and 2035, respectively. 40 Lower growth after 2020 is justified by HEGthe fact that the best shale oil plays will be 38 tapped 36 first. Their contribution in the medium-term will continue to come only Reference Case from 34 North America. In the longer term, however, modest Figure contributions 4.1 might also 32 come from other parts of the world. 30 28 mb/d OPEC Non-OPEC OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC Non-crude LEG Huge investments for additional net capacity, but not markedly different 26 from 24 past LSS Over 22 the period 2011–2035, upstream investment requirements for additional ca- 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 pacity amount to $4.2 trillion in 2011 dollars. Much of the investment needed is to compensate for natural declines in fields that are currently producing oil. However, it should be noted this need compares to the performance of the oil industry in compensating for past declines. For example, over the period 1980–2011, a similar natural decline had to be compensated for – and it was. 13 Executive summary
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 30 and 31: 14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297:
280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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