World Oil Outlook - Opec

which average global fertility declines from 2.5 children per woman in 2005–2010 to
just under 2.2 per woman by 2050. It is this variant that is used in the Reference Case
projections. The UN also develops ‘high’ and ‘low’ variants which have substantial
impacts on future population prospects.
Figure 1.3 portrays the projected global population over the period to 2100.
While this is well beyond the projection period of the Reference Case, it serves to demonstrate
the uncertainties surrounding future population levels. By the end of the UN
projections, the low variant sees a world population that actually declines to 6.2 billion
while the high variant foresees an increase to close to 16 billion by 2100. Even by 2035,
the high variant sees a world population that is 15% higher than in the low variant.
The question to ask is: how significant is this uncertainty for the oil outlook? At
one level, the impact is minor. Most of the people of driving licence age have already
Table 1.2
Population levels and growth, 2010–2035
Levels Growth Growth
millions millions % p.a.
2010 2035 2010–2035 2010–2035 2010–2020 2020–2035
OECD America 484 583 99 0.7 0.9 0.7
OECD Europe 551 588 37 0.3 0.4 0.2
OECD Asia Oceania 209 212 3 0.1 0.2 0.0
OECD 1,244 1,383 139 0.4 0.5 0.3
Latin America 414 503 89 0.8 1.0 0.7
Middle East & Africa 874 1,435 561 2.0 2.2 1.8
India 1,215 1,567 352 1.0 1.2 0.9
China 1,353 1,392 40 0.1 0.3 0.0
Other Asia 1,082 1,374 292 1.0 1.2 0.8
OPEC 408 637 230 1.8 2.0 1.7
Developing countries 5,345 6,909 1,564 1.0 1.2 0.9
Russia 142 133 -9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4
Other Eurasia 196 201 5 0.1 0.2 0.0
Eurasia 338 334 -4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
World 6,926 8,625 1,699 0.9 1.0 0.8
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,
http://esa.un.org/unpp.
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