World Oil Outlook - Opec

120
oil resources, particularly given the rapid expansion of supply that is already underway,
is reflected in the Reference Case.
Looking ahead, it is important to understand the potential infrastructure challenges
for shale oil, particularly with regard to transportation (the expanded use of
rail to transport this oil in the US has been notable but has its limitations) and the
specific capital needs to develop these resources, both human and physical. Moreover,
environmental concerns are a further constraint to the future development of shale
oil (see Box 3.1). For example, hydraulic fracturing, required for the development of
shale oil, involves large volumes of water, and associated concerns about possible pollution,
as well as a number of other environmental impacts, such as heavy equipment
traffic, noise and air pollution.
It is, therefore, estimated in the Reference Case that shale oil supply will
rapidly rise in the US during this decade to reach 2 mb/d by 2020, but the pace
will slow down afterward, with shale oil supply expected to be at a level of 3 mb/d
by 2035.
Table 3.5
Non-OPEC crude oil and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US & Canada 9.4 11.2 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.7
Mexico & Chile 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8
OECD Europe 4.0 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0
OECD Asia Oceania 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
OECD 17.0 17.5 16.9 15.8 14.9 13.9
Latin America 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.7
Middle East & Africa 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0
Asia 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1
China 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3
DCs, excl. OPEC 16.0 16.6 17.6 17.1 16.2 15.2
Russia 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6
Other Eurasia 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7
Eurasia 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3
Non-OPEC 46.4 47.9 48.7 47.5 45.9 44.5