World Oil Outlook - Opec

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The medium-term Reference Case outlook appears in Table 3.2. The combined
growth of these fuels result in non-OPEC supply of other liquids increasing in the
medium-term Reference Case, from 2.2 mb/d in 2011 to 3.6 mb/d in 2016.
Biofuels
For biofuels medium-term supply, it is expected that there will continue to be a supply
growth from first generation biofuels, supported by policy incentives and fiscal support
that, although probably over-ambitious in many cases, provide momentum for
medium-term biofuels growth.
Even over this period, however, some constraints to growth are already appearing.
The economic debt burdens in many countries are now thought to represent a
hurdle for biofuels, given the reduced willingness and ability to subsidize biofuels.
This is likely to have some impact upon medium-term prospects. On top of this, sustainability
issues are increasingly placing a limitation on how much first-generation
biofuels can produce.
Other emerging constraints include the difficulties in achieving established targets,
leading to the introduction of waivers; delays in the implementation of directives;
concerns over capital availability; and high feedstock prices.
With these emerging constraints in mind, the medium-term outlook for biofuels
is slightly softer than in the WOO 2011. Supply rises from 1.9 mb/d in 2011 to
Table 3.3
Non-OPEC biofuel supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US & Canada 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
OECD Europe 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
OECD 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Latin America 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
Asia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Developing countries, excl. OPEC 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9
Non-OPEC 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4