World Oil Outlook - Opec

• New policies since WOO 2011, specifically IMO regulations on ships’ efficiency
and marine bunkers quality specifications, lead to lower oil demand growth in
the latter stages of the forecast;
• Higher oil prices cause some degree of demand reduction by 2035, when compared
to the WOO 2011. Although price elasticities are low, they are not zero.
A key reason for a limited impact is that crude oil price movements are not felt
very strongly at the consumer level in countries with high levels of taxation;
• The implications of technological developments and implementation, especially
in the transportation sector, also point to further downward pressures upon demand
compared to WOO 2011;
• The observed medium-term downward revisions noted also contribute to some
downward long-term revisions; and
• Some upward pressures on demand are, however, channelled through slightly
higher economic growth rate assumptions for India and Russia.
The outlook for long-term oil demand in the Reference Case is presented in
Table 1.6. Demand increases by over 20 mb/d over the period 2010–2035, reaching
107.3 mb/d by 2035. As previously mentioned, OECD demand peaked in 2005 and
Table 1.6
World oil demand outlook in the Reference Case mb/d
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OECD America 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.0 22.4 21.7
OECD Europe 14.7 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.1
OECD Asia Oceania 8.1 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.3
OECD 46.8 45.8 45.2 44.0 42.6 41.1
Latin America 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.6
Middle East & Africa 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
India 3.3 4.0 4.9 6.0 7.4 9.0
China 9.0 11.1 13.2 15.0 16.4 17.6
Other Asia 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.3
OPEC 8.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.0
Developing countries 35.4 40.8 46.3 51.3 56.0 60.6
Russia 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
Other Eurasia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1
Eurasia 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6
World 87.0 91.8 96.9 100.9 104.2 107.3
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