World Oil Outlook - Opec

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132 considerably swifter than in the Reference Case: by 2035, it has risen to over 43 mb/d. There is a slight asymmetry in the results for the LEG and HEG scenarios because of the additional emphasis in the former of the on-going Euro-zone crisis. The Liquids Supply Surge scenario The LSS scenario focuses specifically on supply uncertainties. There are a number of reasons for focusing on supply issues: • It is feasible that the oil price assumption may lead to higher non-OPEC supply than portrayed in the Reference Case. This scenario therefore assumes greater responsiveness to these prices; • This scenario also entails more supply coming from shale oil and NGLs in the US; • In Chapter 3, it was noted that USGS estimates of the URR have increased. The Reference Case has used these new figures to consolidate the estimated feasibility of the supply potential from non-OPEC crude oil and NGLs. However, it is also possible that the higher resource estimates should be associated with stronger non-OPEC oil supply, and this is assumed in the scenario; Table 4.5 Liquids supply in the LSS scenario mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-OPEC 58.1 64.6 67.8 68.5 69.9 Crude 42.1 44.8 44.2 41.3 38.4 NGLs 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.4 Unconventional (incl. biofuels) 6.3 9.3 12.4 15.3 19.1 OPEC 33.9 32.3 33.0 35.7 37.4 NGLs 6.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 10.9 Crude 27.2 24.2 23.7 25.1 25.9 Difference from Reference Case Non-OPEC 2.2 6.0 7.7 7.4 7.2 Crude 1.2 3.5 4.3 3.2 1.9 NGLs 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 Unconventional (incl. biofuels) 0.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.9 OPEC –2.3 –6.2 –8.0 –7.6 –7.5 NGLs 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 Crude –2.5 –6.7 –8.8 –8.8 –9.0
• In the case of biofuels, it is assumed that over the medium-term, first generation biofuels production expands more rapidly than in the Reference Case: China and India emerge as significant biofuels producers; future targets, as yet unannounced, accelerate biofuels development; costs for advanced technologies are reduced considerably, especially in the long-term; and already in the current decade second generation technology becomes commercially viable. Taking all this into consideration, the major changes occur in the longer term and by 2035, total biofuels supply is assumed to reach 9.2 mb/d. With these factors in mind, the LSS scenario has been developed. It portrays an outlook that could be regarded as feasible. Table 4.5 documents the supply levels for each of the elements of liquids supply in the scenario. In this scenario, however, the surge of non-OPEC crude oil cannot be indefinitely maintained. In fact, over the long-term, an accelerated exploitation of the finite resources available, even with the larger URR assumption, points to resource constraints for some regions emerging over the projection period. Additionally, the assumption for additional shale oil foresees a similarly accelerated supply over the next 10–15 years, but this rapid expansion does not continue indefinitely in the scenario. Thus, since demand is assumed to be unaffected in this scenario, OPEC crude supply by 2035 has risen back to 26 mb/d after falling to below in 2025. But this is still well below current output levels. Possible implications for OPEC crude The change in expectations relative to the Reference Case is startling in all three cases. On the one hand, they demonstrate genuine concern over security of demand; on the other, it has also been seen that circumstances could arise where considerably more OPEC crude oil will be needed than the Reference Case suggests. It is clear that the separate drivers, economy and supply surges are substantial elements in their own way. Figure 4.1 brings together the implications for OPEC crude supply in all three scenarios. The two downside risk cases involve either a stagnant call on OPEC crude or a falling one, while the HEG scenario sees substantially higher production levels. By 2035, the expectations for OPEC crude are very similar across the downside risk scenarios, at 25–26 mb/d, while the HEG scenario sees the need for OPEC crude to rise to over 43 mb/d. Naturally, the feasibility of these OPEC supply paths needs to be questioned. The dramatic fall in supply in the downside scenarios, as well as the rapid increase in the HEG scenario may not be sustainable, in which case, the behaviour of the drivers 133 Chapter 4
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 108 and 109: 92 Oil demand growth in this sector
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175 and 176: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 177 and 178: The increases already highlighted a
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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World Oil Outlook - Opec

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