World Oil Outlook - Opec

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228 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.1 Inter-regional crude oil and products exports, 2011–2035 80 60 40 20 0 20 mb/d Crude oil Products 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 3 mb/d, or 3.6% p.a., while crude oil trade will grow along the lines of its long-term trend, increasing by less than 1 mb/d. Figure 9.2 There mb/dare however, great variations and divergent trends behind these global numbers. 50 These are discussed in detail in the following two sub-sections, in terms of the specific trade flows of crude oil and refined products. In 40 the medium-term, the key factor relates to refining capacity expansion, primarily in the Middle East and Latin America, which will make more products available for exports. This is supported by developments in the US & Canada region, 30 where there is declining demand and growing supply. The net result is a higher volume of product exports, with relatively stagnant crude oil trade. oil export 0 growth will be primarily driven by demand increases in the Asia-Pacific, 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 mb/d Figure 9.3 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada In the period after 2015, total oil movements are projected to increase by more than 10 mb/d, of which 6 mb/d is for crude oil and 4 mb/d is for products. Growth in product 10 exports will slow during this period, as regional refining capacity in the longterm is projected to grow more proportionally with regional demand. The majority of the export increase will be directed towards expanding Asian markets. Similarly, crude which is associated with substantial refining capacity expansion.
60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combined crude and liquid products inter-regional trade between 2011 and 2035 increases by around 14 mb/d to a level of 73 mb/d, from mb/d 59 mb/d in 2011. 80 15 Breaking this down further, oil trade movements by 2020 will be around 66 mb/d, rising to 69 mb/d by 2025 and then 71 mb/d by 2030. Crude oil Products Crude oil movements Figure 9.2 presents crude oil movements between the seven major regions16 in the period 2011–2035. In the medium-term, these are projected to decline marginally, but 40 then grow in the long-term. The decline to 2015 is around 0.6 mb/d, from a level of 35 mb/d in 2011. However, total crude exports are expected to be above 36 mb/d by 2020 and exceed 39 mb/d by 2035. This will lead to a total increase in crude oil exports 20 of around 4 mb/d by 2035, compared to 2011. There are a number of factors behind the medium-term marginal decline projected for crude oil exports between major regions. Demand and refining capacity 0 increases in 2011 Latin America 2015will absorb 2020 some additional 2025 barrels 2030 produced 2035 in the region and will even lead to a decline in crude exports from the Middle East and the FSU. Figure 9.2 Global crude oil exports by origin*, 2011–2035 Figure 9.2 50 40 30 20 10 0 mb/d 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 * Only trade between major regions is considered. 20 mb/d Figure 9.3 Asia-Pacific Middle East FSU Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada 229 Chapter 9
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251 and 252: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 253 and 254: 20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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