World Oil Outlook - Opec

6.1
re 6.6
India
rate and raise the savings ratio, thus 1,000supporting
Chinainvestment.
The share of developing
Asian countries in the world’s economic activity rises in the Reference Case from 26%
900
in 2010 to 43% by 2035. OECD regions will nevertheless continue to benefit from
800
higher GDP per capita. Poverty, though retreating, unfortunately remains widespread
in the developing world.
700
The Reference Case considers only current policies
500
The WOO has consistently presented a Reference Case based on policies already in
place. Recent policies that have been 400factored
in include the EU package of measures
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
for climate change and renewable objectives, and the US Energy Independence and
Security Act (EISA). The Reference Case does not, however, include effects from policies
that are currently being proposed or that may be thought to be more likely in the
longer term. This is left for scenario analysis.
Energy demand in the Reference Case increases by 54% over the period
2010–2035
Over the period 2010–2035, primary energy demand in the Reference Case increases
by 54%. Fossil fuels, currently accounting for 87% of this, will still make
up 82% of the global total by
2035. For most of the projection
period, oil will remain the
energy type with the largest
share. However, towards the
end of the projection period,
coal use in the Reference Case
reaches similar levels as that of
oil, with oil’s share having fallen
from 35% in 2010 to 27%
by 2035. Natural gas use will
rise at faster rates than either
coal or oil, both in percentage
terms and quantities, with its
share rising from 23% to 26%.
1,100
600
millions
Working age population in China and India
World supply of primary energy by fuel type
mboe/d
400
Nuclear/Hydro/Biomass/Other renewables
350
Gas
Coal
Oil
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1960 2010 2035
Shale gas has large potential, but mainly in the US for now
There is clearly potential for shale gas on the world energy scene. The main use of
this gas in the foreseeable future will be to replace coal in electricity generation, and
as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector. However, shale gas development is in
its infancy, and there are considerable uncertainties about the size of the resources,
the economics of development and the potential contribution to future supply. Currently,
shale gas production is coming primarily from North America (mainly the US).
9
Executive summary
F
B
F