World Oil Outlook - Opec

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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC Non-crude OPEC Non-crude Crude Non-crude Figure 1.30 Crude Alternative 0 Crude scenarios stress major demand uncertainties for OPEC crude The –2 Reference Case outlook is not a forecast of how the future will evolve, but an Crude internally consistent and feasible benchmark derived from a set of Reference Case as- –4 sumptions and current policies. It is self-evident that different patterns of oil and en- –6 ergy demand 2010–2020 and supply could emerge, 2020–2035 with plausible alternative sets of assumptions. Accordingly, scenarios have been developed for future OPEC crude oil demand. The first scenario, Lower Economic Growth (LEG), looks at the impact of lower economic growth, both in the medium-term, largely as a result of the on-going Euro-zone debt crisis and the Chinese growth slowdown, but also in the longer term. A second scenario, Higher Economic Growth (HEG), acknowledges that there is indeed upside potential for economic growth and explores what this could imply for OPEC oil. And the third scenario, Liquids Supply Surge (LSS), estimates the possible impact upon OPEC crude if the overall supply of liquids other than OPEC crude is higher than estimated in the Reference Case. The change in expectations relative to the Reference Case is startling in all three cases. On the one hand, they OPEC crude oil supply in the three scenarios demonstrate genuine concern mb/d 44 over security of demand; on 42 the other, they underscore 40 HEG that circumstances could 38 arise where considerably more 36 Reference Case OPEC Figure crude 4.1 oil will be need- 34 32 30 28 26 LEG 24 22 LSS 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 ed than the Reference Case suggests. The two downside risk cases involve either a stagnant call on OPEC crude, or a falling one, while the HEG scenario sees substantially higher production levels. By 2035, the expectations for OPEC crude are very similar across the downside risk scenarios, at 25–26 mb/d, while the HEG scenario sees the need for OPEC crude at over 43 mb/d. Naturally, the feasibility of the OPEC supply paths in the three scenarios needs to be questioned. The dramatic supply fall in the downside scenarios, as well as the rapid increase in the HEG scenario may not be sustainable. In which case, the behaviour of the drivers in these scenarios would point to alternative price paths to those assumed in the Reference Case. Hence, uncertainties over these key drivers are intrinsically linked to large uncertainties, both upside and downside, regarding future oil price developments. Close attention needs to be continually paid to
all these elements in order to understand what pressures might be expected upon oil prices in the coming years. Challenges exist also in the downstream, where transport fuels drive future demand structure Gasoil/diesel is expected to witness the largest volume gain, increasing by more than 10 mb/d between 2011 and 2035, mainly due to the growing transport sector, including marine bunkers. However, on a percentage basis, naphtha is anticipated to be the fastest growing product in the long-term, especially in developing Asian countries. Another product witnessing demand expansion is gasoline, with demand increasing by almost 5 mb/d between 2011 and 2035. This, however, is less than half of the diesel/gasoil increase for the same period. Residual fuel oil is the only product that is set to decline globally in the coming years. Its use in industry, mainly for electricity generation and refineries, has faced competition from natural gas in most regions for decades, with the upshot being a demand drop. Moreover, this demand decline will accelerate due to the expected shift from fuel oil to diesel in marine bunkers stemming from International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulations. Global product demand, 2011–2035 mb/d 2011 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 Light products Ethane/LPG 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 Naphtha 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.8 Gasoline Middle distillates 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.3 26.1 Jet/Kerosene 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.7 8.0 Diesel/Gasoil Heavy products 26.0 28.9 31.3 33.2 34.7 36.0 Residual fuel* 8.8 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.3 Other** 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 Total 87.8 92.9 96.9 100.9 104.2 107.3 * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Shift of refining capacity to developing countries will accelerate It is estimated that around 7.2 mb/d of new crude distillation capacity will be added to the global refining system from assessed projects in the period to 2016. Additions to global conversion units and desulphurization capacity are estimated to be 15 Executive summary
Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
Page 7 and 8: Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
Page 11 and 12: Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
Page 13 and 14: Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
Page 16 and 17: Foreword
Page 18 and 19: 2 It should be stressed, however, t
Page 20 and 21: 4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary
Page 24 and 25: e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
Page 26 and 27: 10 Total shale gas production in th
Page 28 and 29: 12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
Page 32 and 33: 16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
Page 34 and 35: 6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
Page 36 and 37: 20 energy sector. At that time many
Page 38 and 39: Section One
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 43 and 44: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
Page 45 and 46: of swaps, as well as a complete aud
Page 47 and 48: Medium-term economic growth This WO
Page 49 and 50: Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 Exports from China to the
Page 53 and 54: which average global fertility decl
Page 55 and 56: India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289:
272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291:
Annex D
Page 292 and 293:
276
Page 294 and 295:
278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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