World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Figure 9.1
Figure 9.1
Inter-regional crude oil and products exports, 2011–2035
80
60
40
20
0
20
mb/d
Crude oil Products
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
3 mb/d, or 3.6% p.a., while crude oil trade will grow along the lines of its long-term
trend, increasing by less than 1 mb/d.
Figure 9.2
There mb/dare
however, great variations and divergent trends behind these global
numbers. 50 These are discussed in detail in the following two sub-sections, in terms of
the specific trade flows of crude oil and refined products.
In 40 the medium-term, the key factor relates to refining capacity expansion, pri-
marily in the Middle East and Latin America, which will make more products available
for exports. This is supported by developments in the US & Canada region,
30 where there is declining demand and growing supply. The net result is a higher volume
of product exports, with relatively stagnant crude oil trade.
oil export 0 growth will be primarily driven by demand increases in the Asia-Pacific,
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
mb/d
Figure 9.3
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
FSU
Europe
Africa
Latin America
US & Canada
In the period after 2015, total oil movements are projected to increase by more
than 10 mb/d, of which 6 mb/d is for crude oil and 4 mb/d is for products. Growth in
product 10 exports will slow during this period, as regional refining capacity in the longterm
is projected to grow more proportionally with regional demand. The majority of
the export increase will be directed towards expanding Asian markets. Similarly, crude
which is associated with substantial refining capacity expansion.