World Oil Outlook - Opec

(Table 3.6). Figure 3.4 emphasizes the expectation that Canadian oil sands are likely
to be the key to the increase.
Biofuels
In developing the long-term prospects for biofuels in the Reference Case, it is necessary
to address the question as to whether the medium-term surge is sustainable, as
the implications for land use and the consequent competition for food production
becomes a real constraint to production growth. This became particularly apparent
during the drought that hit the US midwest farming regions in the summer of 2012,
with subsequent calls for ethanol production to be reduced in response to rising corn
prices. 25
Moreover, looking ahead, there is an apparent growing realization that cellulosic
biofuels may take longer than previously thought to become commercially available.
Very little is currently being produced from cellulosic biofuels, even at a demonstration
phase. 26 Although in the longer term these second generation technologies – and
third generation biofuels technology, such as algae-based fuels – may become commercial,
the pace of their emergence has been revised downwards in this Reference
Case compared to last year’s WOO. In turn, this suggests that targets for second generation
biofuels are over-ambitious.
Table 3.7
Non-OPEC biofuel supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US & Canada 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3
Western Europe 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4
OECD Asia Oceania 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
OECD 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.8
Latin America 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5
Middle East & Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Asia 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
China 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6
DCs, excl. OPEC 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.7
Other Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Non-OPEC 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.9 5.1 6.6
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