World Oil Outlook - Opec

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LPG a e sene Diesel l fuel* roducts** LPG a e sene Diesel l fuel* roducts** 160 Figure 5.6 average growth rate of just below 1% p.a. (Figure 5.8). The drivers of this growth are mainly mb/d transportation fuels. Traditionally this has been gasoline, but increasingly there will 6be future growth in diesel and jet kerosene, notably in Russia. For gasoline, the region sees moderately higher than average demand growth, projected to be around 1% p.a. over the forecast period. In the medium-term, Ethane/LPGhow ever, Naphtha 4 growth rates are higher than the long-term average, reflecting the recent increases Gasoline in new car registrations, the majority of which are gasoline vehicles. Similar Jet/Kerosene increases Gasoil/Diesel are foreseen for diesel/gasoil. This product group will also see a shift in Residual its sectoral fuel* consumption, away from the industrial sector to the transportation sector. Other This products** shift is partly supported by the on-going elimination of gasoline-oriented trucks and buses, 2 but also by the implications of IMO regulations in the Baltic ECA. Substitution by natural gas will moderate growth in fuel oil and diesel/gasoil demand for off-road uses. Lower than average increases are projected for naphtha, despite an expanding pet- 0 rochemical industry in the region. This can be attributed to the expectation that a por- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 tion of the additional feedstock for this industry will be based on natural gas, including the use of currently flared gas, which should be almost eliminated within the next few years. Figure 5.8 Figure 5.8 <strong>Outlook</strong> for oil demand by product, FSU, 2010–2035 5 4 3 2 1 0 mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. Ethane/LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual fuel* Other products**
The increases already highlighted are partially offset by declining fuel oil demand. This is a result of the rationalization and efficiency improvements in the industrial sector, as well as substitution by natural gas in the heat and power sectors. Latin America Refined product demand in Latin America is projected to grow by close to 2% p.a. in the medium-term, with rates gradually declining to below 1% p.a. over the longer term. Similar to other developing regions, growth will occur mainly in middle distillates and gasoline (Figure 5.9). Out of 2.5 mb/d of incremental demand by 2035, 1 mb/d is attributed to gasoil/diesel expansion and another 1 mb/d to gasoline. Increasing air traffic, mostly in the region’s largest countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, will support demand for jet fuel. Therefore, jet/kerosene and naphtha – largely determined by petrochemical expansion in Brazil – also show above average growth rates. However, this is from a relatively low base, which means their overall contribution to demand change is less than 0.2 mb/d between 2010 and 2035. Figure 5.9 <strong>Outlook</strong> for oil demand by product, Figure 5.9 Latin America, 2010–2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 mb/d * Includes refinery fuel oil. ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil, etc. 25 mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 5.11 Ethane/LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual fuel* Other products** 161 Chapter 5 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
Page 158 and 159: Section Two
Page 161 and 162: Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
Page 163 and 164: Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
Page 165 and 166: Figure 5.3 presents the details of
Page 167 and 168: At first glance, retrofitting scrub
Page 169 and 170: Moreover, as already underscored, p
Page 171 and 172: Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
Page 173 and 174: e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
Page 175: Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
Page 179 and 180: Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
Page 181 and 182: Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
Page 183 and 184: equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
Page 185 and 186: observed in several countries since
Page 187 and 188: Germany, provide tax incentives for
Page 189 and 190: Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
Page 191 and 192: Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
Page 193 and 194: expansion, however, remains to be s
Page 195 and 196: Russia and other FSU countries Refi
Page 197 and 198: Europe For the next few years, refi
Page 199 and 200: came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
Page 205 and 206: exceed the incremental ‘call on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
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Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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