World Oil Outlook - Opec

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236 –25 US & Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East Figure 9.4 Major crude exports by destination, 2011–2035 25 20 15 10 5 0 mb/d 2011 Asia-Pacific Europe Africa Latin America US & Canada 2020 2035 2011 2020 2035 2011 2020 Figure 9.4 2035 China Other Asia Latin America Africa FSU Middle East In addition to increased African exports to the Asia-Pacific, this region will also increase its crude exports to Europe by more than 1 mb/d by 2020, compared to 2011 levels. However, Europe’s declining demand and Africa’s growing demand in later years will cut back these African exports to Europe to around 3 mb/d by 2035, although it is still almost 1 mb/d higher than in 2011. All this is mainly due to reduced African deliveries to the US & Canada. Crude oil exports from Latin America show a similar pattern to those from Africa. Expanding crude oil production will enable gradual export increases over the next 10-to-15 years, despite growing local demand and higher refinery throughputs. Towards the end of the forecast period, however, domestic demand will gradually shave the volumes available for exports. Volume changes are not large, as total crude exports from the region are projected to stay within the range of 4–5 mb/d over the entire forecast period. Turning to the major crude oil exporting region, the Middle East, crude exports from the region will shift over the forecast period. The key projected trend over time is a re-direction of exports from Europe and the US & Canada to the growing markets of the Asia-Pacific. Throughout the entire forecast period, the destination that receives the most crude oil exports from the Middle East is the Asia-Pacific. 2011 2020 2035
20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-Pacific, however, the Middle East will not be an exclusive partner in covering its crude demand. As clearly demonstrated in Figure 9.5, the Asia-Pacific will increase crude exports from practically all producing regions, including Canada, under an assumption that export routes to the Pacific coast will be available. 17 12 8 By 2035, product demand in the Asia-Pacific will increase by some 16 mb/d, compared to 2011 4 levels. However, the region’s crude production will decline by more than 2 mb/d over the same period. Therefore, the growing gap between demand and local production in these 0 regions has to be filled by imports, primarily in the form of crude oil from all producing regions, US & but Latin mainly Americafrom Africa the Middle Europe East, and Middle supplemented Asia-Pacificby Russian, Canada East Caspian, African and, to a limited extent, crudes from the Americas. Imports from Canada and Latin America are at levels of around 1 mb/d by 2035. Figure 9.5 Asia-Pacific crude oil imports, 2011–2035 Figure 9.6 20 16 12 8 4 0 12 8 mb/d US & Canada Product movements 2011 2020 2035 Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East Figure 9.7 The overall rising trend in inter-regional product movements between the major seven regions, broken mb/d down into key product groups, is presented in Figure 9.6. In total, product movements are set to increase by close to 5 mb/d between 2011 and 2035, 20 from around 12 mb/d in 2011 to almost 17 mb/d by 2035. Other products Residual fuel Middle distillates Gasoline Naphtha 16 In terms of specific products, some will impact future trade flows more than others. The two products that drive the major changes are middle distillates and 237 Chapter 9
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
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Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
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By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
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imported technologies. Trends in TF
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Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
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Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
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to accelerate, averaging more than
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Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
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• The Reference Case assumes high
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• New policies since WOO 2011, sp
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Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
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Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
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Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
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Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
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The total increase of non-crude liq
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Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
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76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
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78 870 million cars across the glob
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80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
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84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
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86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
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88 a key question concerns the exte
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90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
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92 Oil demand growth in this sector
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94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
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96 particularly due to the movement
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98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
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100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
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102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
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104 developing countries, by 2009 i
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106 this sector was in these countr
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
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110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
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112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
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114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
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116 The medium-term Reference Case
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118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
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120 oil resources, particularly giv
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122 further indication of the large
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124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
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126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
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128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
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130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
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132 considerably swifter than in th
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134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
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136 The improved acquisition, treat
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138 While access to electricity for
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140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
Page 201 and 202: Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
Page 203 and 204: Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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Page 209 and 210: Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
Page 211 and 212: The situation in Europe is differen
Page 213 and 214: fuels mandates call for the continu
Page 215 and 216: costly and have shorter lead times.
Page 217 and 218: 80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
Page 219 and 220: One implication of this is that reg
Page 221 and 222: Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
Page 223 and 224: Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
Page 225 and 226: Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
Page 227 and 228: Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
Page 229 and 230: 2035. As a result, crude throughput
Page 231 and 232: Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
Page 233 and 234: 0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
Page 235 and 236: 5 of the refining base and demand,
Page 237 and 238: Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
Page 239 and 240: Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
Page 241 and 242: Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
Page 243 and 244: Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
Page 245 and 246: 60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
Page 247 and 248: cant decline in US crude imports -
Page 249 and 250: The Seaway line used to flow north
Page 251: Ford crude east along the Gulf and
Page 255 and 256: Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
Page 257 and 258: Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
Page 259 and 260: Shale gas developments could change
Page 261 and 262: Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
Page 263 and 264: conversion. Advances have been made
Page 265 and 266: Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
Page 267 and 268: Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
Page 269: Abbreviations
Page 272 and 273: 256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
Page 274 and 275: Annex B
Page 277 and 278: OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
Page 279 and 280: Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
Page 281 and 282: Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
Page 283: World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 286 and 287: 270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
Page 288 and 289: 272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
Page 290 and 291: Annex D
Page 292 and 293: 276
Page 294 and 295: 278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
Page 296 and 297: 280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
Page 298: Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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