World Oil Outlook - Opec

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92 Oil demand growth in this sector is very closely linked to economic activity but efficiency gains act to limit increases in fuel use. On top of this, the sector is sensitive to higher jet fuel prices. A potentially important change in this sector since the release of the WOO 2011 – and one which makes this price sensitivity all the more significant – is the move by the European Union (EU) to include the aviation sector in its emissions trading scheme (ETS) at the beginning of 2012. This effectively imposes a tax on carbon emissions from flights within EU airspace. This measure covers all EU states, plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, and eventually Croatia, which totals (ultimately) 31 countries. Initial impacts are expected to be limited, since the start of the scheme foresees airlines operators receiving 85% of the total quantity of emissions allowances for free, and then 82% over the period 2013–2020. Nevertheless, since the total quantity of allowances is set as 95% of historical aviation emissions, and 15% of allowances will be assigned by auctioning, costs are set to rise, and passenger tickets and freight unit costs will be affected. Table 2.7 Oil demand in aviation in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Growth 2009 2010 2020 2035 2009–2035 OECD America 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.2 OECD Europe 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 OECD Asia Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 OECD 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 0.5 Latin America 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Middle East & Africa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 India 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 China 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 Other Asia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 OPEC 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 Developing countries 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.6 1.1 Russia 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 Other Eurasia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Eurasia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 World 4.8 4.9 5.6 6.6 1.8
lions) 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 0 China Russia Brazil Mexico India Indonesia IR Iran Poland Argentina Japan Table 2.8 Growth in oil demand in aviation in the Reference Figure 2.8 NEW Case % p.a. 1990–2009 2009–2020 2020–2035 OECD America –0.3 0.8 0.3 millions OECD Europe 3.0 0.5 0.3 800 OECD Asia Oceania 2.2 1.6 1.3 OECD 700 Latin America 0.9 2.8 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.9 Middle East 600 & Africa 3.7 Other developing 1.1 countries 1.3 India 5.5 2.5 2.8 China 500 15.9 5.4 3.0 Other Asia 4.8 1.9 1.5 OPEC 400 1.9 1.8 0.8 Developing 300countries Russia 4.6 –2.7 2.6 Asian developing 2.5 countries 1.8 1.9 Other Eurasia 200 Eurasia –3.8 Eurasia –3.0 1.8 2.4 1.1 1.8 World 100 OECD 1.4 1.5 1.0 0 Figure 2.11 Growth in aviation oil demand, 2009–2035 Other Eurasia Latin America Middle East & Africa OPEC India OECD Europe Russia OECD Asia Oceania OECD America Other Asia mboe/d China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe/d 0.6 Figure 2.13 Figure 2.11 93 Chapter 2
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World Oil Outlook 2012 Organization
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OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
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Contents Foreword 1 Executive summa
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Section Two Oil downstream outlook
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Table 2.16 Growth in oil demand in
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Figure 2.8 Increase in number of pa
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Foreword
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2 It should be stressed, however, t
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4 with all stakeholders aimed at fo
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Executive summary
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e 6.3 6.1 8 that year. The impact i
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10 Total shale gas production in th
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12 Demand for OPEC crude stays esse
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14 6 4 2 OPEC Non-crude Non-OPEC No
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16 3 2 1 0 -1 almost 5 mb/d and mor
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6.2 6.3 .1 1,100 18 1,000 2.6 mb/d,
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20 energy sector. At that time many
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform: swap der
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of swaps, as well as a complete aud
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Medium-term economic growth This WO
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Domestic Product (GDP), Italy and S
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Figure 2 Exports from China to the
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which average global fertility decl
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India Nigeria gional increase conti
Page 57 and 58: Figure 1.6 Figure 1.6 Real GDP by r
Page 59 and 60: By 2035, the Chinese economy will b
Page 61 and 62: imported technologies. Trends in TF
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1.8 World supply of primary
Page 65 and 66: Figure 1.10 Coal: proven reserves a
Page 67 and 68: to accelerate, averaging more than
Page 69 and 70: Figure 1.15 Evolution of energy dem
Page 71 and 72: • The Reference Case assumes high
Page 73 and 74: • New policies since WOO 2011, sp
Page 75 and 76: Figure 1.20 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 77 and 78: Figure 1.24 Average annual global g
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.26 Proven oil reserves at
Page 81 and 82: Table 1.7. 7 The growth in non-OPEC
Page 83 and 84: The total increase of non-crude liq
Page 85 and 86: Figure 1.30 Incremental OPEC and no
Page 87 and 88: 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Page 89: 2 0 Figure 1.36 Per capita CO2 emis
Page 92 and 93: 76 Figure 2.1 Percentage shares of
Page 94 and 95: 78 870 million cars across the glob
Page 96 and 97: 80 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
Page 98 and 99: 82 Figure 2.7 Figure 2.7 Passenger
Page 100 and 101: 84 Commercial vehicles The projecti
Page 102 and 103: 86 In terms of the ICE vehicle effi
Page 104 and 105: 88 a key question concerns the exte
Page 106 and 107: 90 Table 2.5 Oil demand in road tra
Page 110 and 111: 94 300 200 2,000 Developing countri
Page 112 and 113: 96 particularly due to the movement
Page 114 and 115: 98 China 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 mboe
Page 116 and 117: 100 Table 2.14 Growth in oil demand
Page 118 and 119: 102 Table 2.15 Oil demand in other
Page 120 and 121: 104 developing countries, by 2009 i
Page 122 and 123: 106 this sector was in these countr
Page 124 and 125: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand in electr
Page 126 and 127: 110 Figure 3.1 Changes to non-OPEC
Page 128 and 129: 112 I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets), Su
Page 130 and 131: 114 Table 3.1 Non-OPEC crude oil an
Page 132 and 133: 116 The medium-term Reference Case
Page 134 and 135: 118 Table 3.4 Estimates of world cr
Page 136 and 137: 120 oil resources, particularly giv
Page 138 and 139: 122 further indication of the large
Page 140 and 141: 124 Figure 3.3 Table 3.6 billion ba
Page 142 and 143: 126 The Reference Case sees biofuel
Page 144 and 145: 128 much OPEC oil will be needed) g
Page 146 and 147: 130 Table 4.1 Oil demand in the LEG
Page 148 and 149: 132 considerably swifter than in th
Page 150 and 151: 134 24 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202
Page 152 and 153: 136 The improved acquisition, treat
Page 154 and 155: 138 While access to electricity for
Page 156 and 157: 140 In September 2012, OPEC and Rus
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 Demand outlook to 2035 Re
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Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Global produc
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Figure 5.3 presents the details of
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At first glance, retrofitting scrub
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Moreover, as already underscored, p
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Regional product demand to 2035 Tur
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e el el* cts** 0 8 mb/d of addition
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Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Outlook for o
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The increases already highlighted a
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Demand for fuel oil will remain rel
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Shell Chemicals and Formosa Plastic
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equirement of 10 ppm. China is expe
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observed in several countries since
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Germany, provide tax incentives for
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Chapter 6 Medium-term refining outl
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Figure 6.1 Distillation capacity ad
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expansion, however, remains to be s
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Russia and other FSU countries Refi
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Europe For the next few years, refi
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came onstream during 2011, combined
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Box figure 1 Figure 1 Estimated dis
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Box figure 1 mb/d The situation on
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exceed the incremental ‘call on
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-1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure
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Figure 6.7 Global secondary units a
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The situation in Europe is differen
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fuels mandates call for the continu
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costly and have shorter lead times.
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80 70 with 60 1.3 mb/d globally. Th
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One implication of this is that reg
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Chapter 7 Long-term refining outloo
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Table 7.1 Global demand growth and
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Europe lose 5.5 mb/d of throughput
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Figure 7.2 Figure 7.2 Total gasolin
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2035. As a result, crude throughput
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Table 7.3 Global capacity requireme
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0 US & Canada Latin America Africa
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5 of the refining base and demand,
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Chapter 8 Downstream investment req
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Other Asia, in the long-term, the p
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Figure 8.3 also summarizes total in
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Chapter 9 Oil movements Generally,
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60 Figure 9.1 In summary, the combi
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cant decline in US crude imports -
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The Seaway line used to flow north
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Ford crude east along the Gulf and
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20 16 2011 2020 2035 For the Asia-P
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Figure 9.7 in these two regions. Th
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Chapter 10 Downstream challenges Th
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Shale gas developments could change
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Upgrading At around 18 mb/d install
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conversion. Advances have been made
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Section One 1. The OPEC Reference B
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Section Two 1. The World Oil Refini
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Abbreviations
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256 G-20 Group of Twenty GDP Gross
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Annex B
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OECD OECD America Canada Puerto Ric
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Côte d’Ivoire Rwanda Democratic
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Gibraltar Turkmenistan Kazakhstan U
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Bolivia (Plurinational State of
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272 Eastern Europe Albania Poland B
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Annex D
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276
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278 EnSys Energy & Systems, Inc Eur
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280 Petroleum Economist PFC Energy
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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