World Oil Outlook - Opec

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Liquids supply in the long-term
A central result that emerges from the assessment of the long-term supply of liquids
is that resources are plentiful and that the sources of this supply are extremely diverse.
Crude oil and NGL projections to 2035 are based on the resource base estimates
from the US Geological Survey (USGS) 8 of ultimately recoverable resources (URR)
of crude oil and NGLs. As described in Chapter 4, adjustments to these figures have
been made in the past to account for countries that plainly have a resource base of
crude and/or NGLs, given that production is underway, but for which the USGS data
contains no estimated URR value. But recently a new assessment has become available
from the USGS which supersedes earlier estimates.
It should be stressed that estimates by the USGS for crude resources do not
include shale oil resources. As we have seen in the medium-term Reference Case, a
rapid revision to expectations for the contribution of this source of crude oil to the
liquids supply has been taking place. The long-term potential for shale oil is, therefore,
also reflected in this Reference Case. However, because of the rapid decline rates
experienced with this form of supply and the considerable infrastructural challenges
(particularly those related to transportation), as well as the fact that the best plays are
tapped first, it is not expected that the rapid acceleration of supply growth over this
decade will continue indefinitely. A slower build-up of shale oil supply is, therefore,
incorporated into the post-2020 outlook.
The non-OPEC liquids supply outlook is completed by the assessment of the
long-term potential for biofuels and other liquids. These are expected to be important
sources of additional oil over the projection period, although they remain subject to
their own constraints and challenges. These are examined further in Chapter 3.
Total non-OPEC liquids supply increases strongly in the long-term, as shown
in Table 1.8, by more than 10 mb/d: increases in crude and NGLs supply from the
Caspian, Russia, Brazil and shale oil in the US, as well as steady increases in biofuels
and oil sands, are far stronger than decreases elsewhere. Non-OPEC supply from
Canadian oil sands and biofuels in the US, Europe and Brazil continues to grow
strongly, by close to 11 mb/d. Global NGLs supply rises by close to 7 mb/d over
these years.
These developments mean that OPEC crude supply needs to rise in the Reference
Case, but at a modest rate. By 2035, it would need to be just 35 mb/d, around
5 mb/d higher than in 2010. This would mean that the share of OPEC crude in global
liquids supply remains approximately constant, at around 32%, throughout the whole
forecast period (Figure 1.28).